Going for gold: Five countries expected to medal this winter

As the Winter Olympics get underway in Milan-Cortina, five managers look at the countries expected to deliver both on and off the slopes

6–8m

JPMorgan – Italy

Jules Bloch, manager of JPMorgan European Discovery Trust

As host of the upcoming Winter Olympics, Italy is back in the global spotlight – but away from the ski slopes, its equity market is quietly drawing attention for different reasons.

Italian smaller and mid-sized companies have emerged as a bright spot within European markets, helped by solid domestic demand, a steadier economic backdrop and exposure to long-term growth themes. Across Europe, smaller companies have held up better than many expected during recent bouts of volatility, partly because they are less exposed to US tariffs and more closely tied to areas seeing renewed public spending and innovation. Against that backdrop, Italy stands out, prompting the JPMorgan European Discovery Trust (JEDT) to hold a higher allocation to the country than its benchmark.

What underpins that positioning is the breadth of opportunity across Italian businesses that combine recognisable brands with the ability to grow beyond their home market. De’Longhi is a prime example. Best known for its premium espresso machines, the company is riding the global shift towards espresso and higher-end, fully automatic machines. Penetration remains low in key markets such as the US, while demand in Asia is only starting to build. A strong brand, ongoing investment in product development and a healthy balance sheet give the company room to keep expanding.

See also: The European stockmarkets hitting the high notes

Elsewhere in the portfolio, Unipol, an Italian general insurer that has delivered strong performance, supported by positive insurance results and the continued strength of its banking investments. Lottomatica, the Italian gaming group, has also been a notable contributor, benefitting from rising online market penetration and its ability to take market share from smaller, less efficient regional competitors.

With valuations among European smaller companies still relatively modest, interest rates easing and renewed investor attention on the region – including through merger and acquisition activity – Italy’s mix of established names and agile specialists could leave it well placed to outperform as attention turns its way in the run-up to the Games.

Columbia Threadneedle – Team GB

Andrew Carnwath, manager of the CT Private Equity Investment Trust

When investors think about the Winter Olympics, Scotland may not always be front of mind, and it isn’t exactly blessed with textbook alpine conditions. Yet Scottish athletes continue to play an important role in Team GB’s winter sporting success, with the country’s historic association with events such as curling to more recent Olympic hopefuls, such as Kirsty Muir.

That same mindset underpins Scotland’s private equity opportunity set, where we continue to see high-quality, internationally scalable businesses emerging across a range of sectors. A standout example is Skyscanner, which grew from a Scottish start-up into a global travel search platform before being sold to Ctrip for £1.4bn, delivering a return of more than 60x invested capital.

Today, we see similarly compelling characteristics in businesses such as AutoRek, a leading financial and regulatory data management software provider; Astrak, a specialist distributor of undercarriage parts for construction equipment; Kelso Pharma, a fast-growing European speciality pharma business; and Cyberhawk, a pioneer in drone-based inspections and aerial data management.

Like Scotland’s contribution to Team GB on the ice, these businesses may not always attract the spotlight, but they consistently deliver disciplined growth – making the region an attractive hunting ground for private equity investors.

Impax – Norway

Agne Rackauskaite, co-portfolio manager of the Sustainable Food strategy at Impax Asset Management

Our pick is Norway. Not only did it top the medals table at the 2022 Winter Olympics, but it also leads in sustainable aquaculture, an industry set to benefit from shifting diets and the newly updated US dietary guidelines.

By placing ‘real food’ at the centre of national nutrition policy, the US government is signalling a move away from energy-dense products towards whole, nutrient-dense foods. The new guidelines recommend daily protein intake of 1.2 to 1.6 grams per kilogram of body weight, a change that will be felt immediately through the vast mechanism of federal nutrition policy.

Since the US accounts for nearly 30% of worldwide food spending, this policy shift has the potential to materially reshape demand across the global food sector. It also has significant ramifications for investors, with the US government effectively seeking to direct both consumer behaviour and billions of dollars in institutional food purchasing.

Higher protein targets benefit high-quality aquaculture and dairy producers. Norway is the world’s number 1 salmon exporter and leading farmed salmon producers such as Lerøy are well-positioned, as the guidelines specifically endorse omega-3 rich seafood. 

Despite the tariff uncertainty and US president Trump’s failure to win the Nobel Prize, we’d predict that many more Norwegian salmon will be making their way across the Atlantic this year.     

Allspring – India

Alison Shimada, senior portfolio manager in the total emerging markets team at Allspring Global Investments

As the world turns its attention to the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan–Cortina, India will again step onto the winter‑sports stage with a small but determined team in alpine and cross‑country skiing. Though modest in size, the delegation is symbolic in that it reflects a nation broadening its global footprint, building capacity in new arenas, and channelling the aspirations of a young, ambitious population.

In many ways, this mirrors India’s broader 2026 economic narrative — an economy gaining altitude through structural reform, demographic strength, and rising international relevance. With a population of more than 1.4 billion and a median age under 30, the country is entering a multi‑decade consumption and productivity cycle unmatched by most global peers.

See also: Why India’s long-term growth story remains intact

Macro fundamentals are solid. Inflation has eased relative to other emerging markets, foreign exchange reserves are strong, asset quality is benign and sustained public investment — particularly in transportation, digital infrastructure, and energy—is effectively crowding in private capital. Ongoing manufacturing incentives, logistics upgrades, and tax simplification continue to shift India from a services‑heavy model toward more balanced growth.

A key catalyst this year is India’s expanding role in global supply‑chain diversification. As companies pursue “China‑plus‑one” strategies, India is emerging as a competitive manufacturing hub across electronics, pharmaceuticals, autos, and specialty materials — supporting export growth, job creation, and technology transfer.

India’s digital‑first economy remains a major driver. Rapid adoption of digital payments, low‑cost data, and public digital platforms has formalized broad segments of the economy and boosted productivity for consumers and small businesses. This digital foundation supports scalable growth in fintech, e‑commerce, healthcare, and education.

For investors, India’s equity market offers breadth, depth, and improving earnings quality. Despite valuations that can be demanding, India’s long‑term visibility positions it as one of the most attractive emerging markets entering 2026.

First Eagle – South Korea

Christian Heck, deputy head of global value and portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments

After decades spent in the shadow of larger peers, Korea is our clear Olympic winner.   We have been invested in Korea for nearly 30 years, approaching the market as a global, bottom-up investors focused on individual companies rather than macroeconomic forecasts. For long-term investors willing to look beyond short-term market fluctuations, Korea continues to offer opportunities to selectively invest in high-quality businesses at attractive, discounted valuations.

This opportunity became especially pronounced toward the end of 2024, with equities trading at around 0.8 times book value, at a time when many global equity markets appeared fully valued.

See also: Will ‘value up’ governance reforms address the ‘Korea discount’?

We believe this environment created an unusually attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to Korea – an opportunity that has persisted as the country begins to take concrete steps toward corporate governance reform under the banner of “Value Up.”

The principles underpinning ‘value up’ bear meaningful similarities to Japan’s corporate reform journey over the past decade. The parallels with Japan are hard to ignore and, while Korea’s reform process remains in its early stages, optimism about Korea’s trajectory under the ‘value up’ continues to build. On most metrics, Korea remains cheaper than Japan, even after last year’s rally, trading at a lower price-to-book and earnings multiples, and offering what we consider compelling opportunities for thoughtful, long-term investors.

[1] Financial Times, June 2025.