Monday 29 June
– UK mortgage approvals
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said economists and house builders will be hoping to see improvement in May given in April, mortgage approvals fell by 76% year-on-year to 15,848 – the lowest figure since Bank of England records began in 1986, according to Refinitiv data.
– UK GDP update
– In the US, quarterly results from silicon chip maker Micron
Tuesday 30 June
– Chinese purchasing managers’ indices.
Mould said: “Although a fresh flare-up of Covid-19 in Beijing in June may have created some fresh worries, it will be interesting to see if both readings stay above the 50 mark, which would be indicative of growth and a recovery in the economy, after the first quarter’s 6.8% year-on-year decline.”
– S&P/Case-Shiller house price index in the US
– US conference board consumer confidence indicator
“The reading showed only marginal improvement to 86.6 from 85.7 in May, way below October 2018’s high of 137.8, despite a sharp rebound in the stock market,” said Mould. “It will be interesting to see if further gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, accompanied by reports of big withdrawals of cash from money market funds, and less dreadful weekly unemployment claims data contribute to a bounce back in June, or whether an increase in Covid-19 cases caps any improvement in sentiment.”
– Nationwide house price index
– Easyjet interim results
Wednesday 1 July
– US ISM Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager Sam Buckingham said it seems a distant memory when the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was pushing close to 61 in 2018. The index has been in almost-constant decline since then, hitting a low of 41.5 in April.
“Last month, however, the index jumped up, indicating that the sector is beginning to stabilise – albeit at a depressed level,” he added. “Significant challenges of course remain, but with states beginning to re-open, we expect a further tick-up in the index for June. Indeed, current forecasts are for it to edge closer to expansionary territory, jumping from 43.1 last month to 48.5.”
– Trading statement from Topps Tiles
– UK PMI manufacturing data
– Japanese Tankan (short-term economics survey of enterprises) survey
Mould said: “The quarterly Tankan peaked at 17 in Q1 2018 and had already been on the slide, long before Covid-19 hit Asia, to again question whether the combination of ‘Abenomics’ and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy was working or not.”
– Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices in Asia, Europe and the UK
– Weekly US oil inventories data
– US ADP monthly payrolls survey
– The US Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts survey
– In the US, quarterly results from food producer General Mills, struggling retailer Macy’s and drinks giant Constellation Brands
– Sainsbury first-quarter trading statement
This will be Simon Roberts’ first trading update as Sainsbury’s CEO after Mike Coupe’s departure on 1 June after nearly six years in the job, noted Mould.
He said: “Sainsbury has done its bit to keep the nation fed and watered during the lockdown and the grocery giant gave some indication of trading patterns in the new financial year, which began just before the imposition of the lockdown, alongside its full-year results on 30 April.”
Thursday 2 July
– US employment report
Buckingham said: “The growth in jobs is expected to continue in full force and economists now expect a further 3 million jobs being added in June, accompanied with a further reduction in the unemployment rate down to 12.3% from 13.3%. Equity markets rallied following last month’s better-than-expected employment report, so we will naturally be keeping a close eye on Thursday’s for a surprise on either the up or down.”
– Full-year results from packaging group DS Smith
– Trading statement from Primark-owner Associated British Foods
Friday 3 July
– UK and eurozone composite PMIs
Buckingham said: “PMIs for the UK and eurozone have rebounded for two consecutive months now, following record lows in April. They both remain in contractionary territory, though, as they continue to stabilise.
“Taking a first look at preliminary PMIs for June, they indicate further strength from a low base, coming out well ahead of consensus, particularly in France where they are in fact indicating growth with readings above 50.”
– GFK consumer confidence data
– Full-year results from Fuller, Smith & Turner and Purplebricks
– Services industry purchasing managers’ indices in Asia, Europe and the UK
