Monday 15 April
- Trading updates from Hollywood Bowl, Mitie and Ashmore
- Germany wholesale price inflation
- Day 1 (of 6) of spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, Washington, DC
- EU industrial production
- US retail sales
- US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
- In Europe, quarterly results from Sulzer
- In the US, quarterly results from Goldman Sachs and M&T Bank
- PageGroup trading update
Recruitment agencies PageGroup, Robert Walters, and Hays will share their trading updates this week between Monday and Wednesday in a period of strong wage growth and relatively steady unemployment levels since 2019.
All three agencies showed a slowdown in the second half of 2023, as vacancies lowered from 1.3m in 2022 to 908,000 and the UK dipped slightly into recession.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “Robert Walters put out a profit warning last June, and earnings estimates there have continued to leak lower, while Hays and PageGroup both coughed up a trading alert in early January, when both cited a weak December and a poor finish to the fourth quarter of calendar 2023.”
The AJ Bell trio noted the uptick in temporary workers other than full-time staff, “signs of weakness” across the UK, US, and China, and shrinking staff at the recruitment companies themselves.
Lately, PageGroup’s shares have continued to climb, while Robert Walters and Hays have fallen. Analysts will look to net fee income for results, which declined by 9% for PageGroup and 10% for Robert Walters and Hays in the final quarter of 2023.
“All three firms felt confident enough to run share buybacks, or issue a special dividend, thanks to their net cash balance sheets in their past financial year, so watch out for any commentary on cash returns or financial guidance more widely, although in the case of PageGroup and Robert Walters it may be a bit early in the year for that,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
Tuesday 16 April
- Full-year results from Ashtead Technologies, Next15, Team17 and Everyman Media
- Trading updates from Rio Tinto, QinetiQ and Oxford Instruments
- UK unemployment and wage growth
- Chinese Q1 GDP growth
- Chinese monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment
- German ZEW economic survey
- US new building permits
- US new housing starts
- US industrial production and capacity utilisation rate
- In Europe, quarterly results from LVMH, Beiersdorf and LM Ericsson
- In the US, quarterly results from United Health, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, Omnicom and United Airlines
- Robert Walters trading update
Wednesday 17 April
- Full-year results from Saga and Inspecs
- First-half results from ASOS
- Trading updates from Entain and EasyJet
- UK inflation
- EU inflation (final reading)
- Federal Reserve Beige Book
- US oil inventories
- In Australia, quarterly results from BHP
- In Europe, quarterly results from ASML, Volvo, Les Francais des Jeux, Bruno Cucinelli, Just Eat Takeaway and Viscofan
- In the US, quarterly results from Abbott Labs, CSX, US Bancorp, Travelers, Kinder Morgan, Las Vegas Sands, Equifax, Citizens Financial, Alcoa and Bank OZK
- Hays trading update
Thursday 18 April
- Full-year results from Keystone Law
- Trading statements from SEGRO, Rentokil Initial, Rank, Deliveroo, Dunelm and Foxtons
- EU consumer confidence
- US existing homes sales
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In Asia, quarterly results from TSMC
- In Europe, quarterly results from L’Oreal, EssilorLuxottica, ABB, Danone, EQT, Schindler and Nokia
- In the US, quarterly results from Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, Blackstone, DR Horton, American Airlines and Alaska Air
- Centamin first-quarter trading update
Centamin will release its first-quarter trading update in a period where gold has risen to an all-time high of $2,350 per ounce.
However, while the metal itself trades at all-time highs, gold mining shares have not had the same success. Centamin shares currently sit around 131 according to the London Stock Exchange as of 12 April. In April 2020 in the first stages of the pandemic, shares reached above 225.
“Gold is going up even though the yield on US Treasuries is also going up, so investors seem happy to hold the metal, which yields nothing, rather than US ten-year government paper, which currently yields 4.36%, or even cash dollars,” the AJ Bell trio said.
“That makes no sense unless investors are taking the view that inflation will run higher for longer than expected and erode the real-term value of both the coupons on US Treasuries and dollars in the bank.”
The full-year expectations for Centamin include a gold output between 470,000 and 500,000 ounces, above 2023’s 450,000 and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) between $1,200 and $1,350 compared to 2023’s $1,205.
“That forecast AISC for 2024 is way below the current gold price, so these numbers should be a good test of whether sitting on top of a gold mine really is all it is cracked up to be,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
“Centamin is expected by analysts to show a healthy increase in operating profit in 2024, to $348 million, compared to $200 million last year. Further increases in earnings are seen for 2025, all other things being equal.”
Friday 19 April
- First-half results from Lok’nStore
- Trading statement from Man Group
- GfK UK consumer confidence
- UK retail sales
- Japanese inflation
- In Asia, quarterly results from China Unicom
- In Europe, quarterly results from Sodexo
- In the US, quarterly results from Procter & Gamble, American Express, SLB and Fifth Third Bancorp
