Monday 9 May
- -First-half results from Victrex
- -Japanese wage data
- -In Europe, quarterly results from silicon chip maker Infineon
- -In the US, quarterly results from Duke Energy, Simon Property, Microchip, Biontech and Palantir
Tuesday 10 May
- -Trading statement from Renishaw
- -BRC UK retail sales survey
- -Queen’s speech, including Financial Services Bill 2022
- German inflation
In March, wholesale price inflation (WPI) in Germany was 22.6%, the highest figure since modern records began in 1962, while the annual inflation rate jumped to a 41-year high of 7.3%.
- -German ZEW business sentiment survey
- -US NFIB smaller companies survey
The US NFIB reading, a good measure of investor risk appetite, slid to 93.2 in March, its lowest reading since the pandemic-hit month of April 2020 and well below its 108.8 peak of August 2018, notes AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and financial analyst Danni Hewson.
“This decline supports the narrative that the US economy had already been slowing before the pandemic and that fiscal stimulus from government and monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve temporarily provided a fillip.
“However, those programmes are over, and the Fed is starting to tighten policy, so it could be that the US economy is returning to trend. This also feeds the theory that the Fed was too late to raise rates and has started to do so at just the wrong time,” they added.
The NFIB’s steady decline has been weighing on the Russell 2000, America’s leading small-cap index, which is down 18% year-to-date, Mould and Hewson said.
“History suggests that if small-cap stocks start to falter then large-caps may not be far behind, even if, again, the past is no guarantee for the future.”
- -In Japan, quarterly results from Sony and Nintendo
- -In Asia, a monthly sales update from TSMC
- -In Europe, quarterly results from Bayer
- -In the US, quarterly results from Electronic Arts, Coin Base, Roblox, Fox and Warner Music
Wednesday 11 May
- -Full-year results from Vertu Motors
- -First-half results from Compass
- -Trading statements from ITV, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Airtel Africa and TUI
- -DWP consultation ‘Facilitating investment in illiquid assets’ closes
- -China and US inflation
Following Germany, the two biggest superpowers reveal their own headline inflation figures. The US CPI rose by 8.5% year-on-year in March, however, China’s own CPI was just 1.5%, below its 3% target.
There are growing fears the Federal Reserve is behind the curve on lifting interest rates and that markets could be headed for a repeat of 1970s-style stagflation.
But Mould and Hewson said it is worth bearing in mind that the 1970s saw several successive waves of inflation.
“That vicious cycle, and the higher interest rates that were needed to stop it, then weighed further on near-term economic growth to create a thankfully very rare stagflationary environment. Whether there are any parallels between then and now is something that investors must decide for themselves, but history suggests that spikes in the price of crude have tended to slow economic growth in the US – and where America goes, the world tends to follow.”
- -US oil inventories
- -In Japan, quarterly results from Softbank, Toyota Motors and Takeda Pharmaceutical
- -In Asia, quarterly results from JD.com
- -Europe, quarterly results from Continental, Siemens Energy and Alstom
- -In the US, quarterly results from Walt Disney and Rivian Automotive
Though the bulk of Disney’s profits come from its theme parks, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Laura Hoy said all eyes will be on the performance of its streaming business in Q2 after major misses from Netflix and Amazon.
“So far, Disney’s streaming service has been growing at pace with subscribers to its namesake service up 37% in the last quarter. The big question is whether that growth continued in the second quarter,” said Hoy.
“Rival Netflix has seen subscriber growth start to dwindle in a post-pandemic lull. If Disney’s growth continued despite a return to normalcy, it could suggest the Mouse is winning the streaming battle. Costs are another factor to consider – that segment was in the red at last check as the group spent heavily to build out its streaming plays.”
Thursday 12 May
- -Full-year results from 3i and BT
Analysts are predicting BT’s sales to drop 2.3% year-on-year to £20.9bn, alongside a 2% rise in adjusted earnings to £7.6bn and a full-year dividend of 7.7p, in line with its final payment for 2020 after skipping one for fiscal 2021, said Mould and Hewson.
BT’s shares have been weighed on by a media whirlwind over a possible bid for the business and a potential merger of its Sport business with Eurosport UK, they added. This has been exacerbated by the arrival of chairman Adam Crozier, who has a history of ambitious M&A deals, including at ITV.
“The harsh truth is that BT shares trade no higher now than they did back in 1986,” Mould and Hewson said. “It can be argued that the firm is hemmed in on all sides – by regulators, competitors and also customers who can and will switch providers if they feel they can get a better price, service or both elsewhere.”
- -First-half results from Grainger
- -Trading statements or quarterly results from Coca-Cola HBC, Balfour Beatty and Convatec
- -UK GDP
Hargreaves Lansdown Select fund manager Steve Clayton said the provisional figures for March will be the first to include activity since the lifting of the last Covid restrictions in England.
“The last reading for February showed anaemic expansion, just 0.1%, even though Russia did not commence its invasion of Ukraine until towards the end of February. The whole of March will have been impacted and the growing awareness of the surging cost of utility services will also have taken its toll.”
- -UK manufacturing, industrial and construction output
- -FCA consultation (CP 22/6) ‘Consumer redress for unsuitable advice to transfer out of the British Steel Pension Scheme’ – Q19 closes
- -US weekly unemployment claims
- -In Japan, quarterly results from Tokyo Electron and Nissan Motor
- -In Asia, quarterly results from SMIC
- -In Europe, quarterly results from Siemens and Hapag-Lloyd
- -In the US, quarterly results from Norwegian Cruise Lines
Friday 13 May
- -First-half results from Sage
- -Halifax house price index in the UK
- -EU industrial production
- -US University of Michigan consumer confidence survey
- -In Japan, quarterly results from Honda Motor
