Weekly Outlook: UK banks and Tesla to report

Key events for wealth managers in the week beginning 21 October

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Monday 21 October

  • Full-year results from Tristel
  • Chinese one- and five-year interest rates decision
  • German producer price (factory gate) inflation
  • World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings, Washington DC (run all week)
  • In Europe, quarterly results from SAP and Sandvik

Tuesday 22 October

  • Full-year results from Virgin Wine
  • Trading statements from InterContinental Hotels and Gear4Music
  • UK government borrowing
  • BRICS Summit, Kazan, Russia (first day of three)
  • In Asia, quarterly results from China Mobile, SKHynix
  • In Europe, quarterly results from L’Oréal, Deutsche Boerse, Logitech, Saab and Randstad
  • In the US, quarterly results from GE Aerospace, Danaher, Verizon Communications, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, RTX, Lockheed Martin, 3M, Freeport-McMoRan, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark, Costar, Baker Hughes, Seagate, Packaging Corp and Interpublic

Wednesday 23 October

  • Trading statements from Reckitt Benckiser, WPP, Barratt Redrow and Fresnillo
  • EU consumer confidence
  • Bank of Canada interest rate decision
  • US existing homes sales
  • US Federal Reserve Beige Book
  • US oil inventories
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Hong Kong Exchanges
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Roche, Atlas Copco, Iberdrola, Kering, Heineken, Assa Abloy, Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Michelin, Carrefour, Volvo Cars, SSAB, Saipem and Viscofan
  • In the US, quarterly results from Coca-Cola, AT&T, IBM, LAM Research, Boeing, Amphenol, GE Vernova, Newmont, United Rentals, Teradyne, Otis Worldwide, eBay and Mattel
  • UK banks to report

Three of the UK’s largest banks will release third quarter trading updates this week, starting with Lloyds on Wednesday, before Barclays on Thursday and NatWest on Friday.

The FTSE 350 banks index is up by nearly a fifth over the past 12 months, to leave it ranked 13 out of the 39 industrial sectors that make up the wider benchmark and very close to a five-year high.

Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “In capital terms, Barclays is actually the fifth best performer in the FTSE 100 over the past year with a gain of more than 50%. NatWest ranks sixth and Lloyds 17th.”

However, the trio said that analysts seem fairly cautious coming into the next set of results.

“For the three domestic banks alone, stated pre-tax profit is also expected to be generally flat in 2024 and 2025, at around £20bn, a figure which broadly meet’s 2007’s high, and when it comes to the third-quarter numbers (and any guidance for the fourth), the themes and numbers to watch will be the same across each of Lloyds, Barclays and NatWest, namely: Loan and deposit growth, the trend in net interest margin, the trend in loan losses and asset impairments, any litigation and conduct costs and cash returns to investors.

“Deposit growth finally turned positive across the trio in aggregate in Q2, after six consecutive year-on-year decreases, while loan growth was modest.”

  • Tesla Q3 results

Tesla is also set to post its results for Q3 on Wednesday. Shares in the firm are down by almost 50% since their peak in 2021.

“Buoyed by strong third-quarter production and shipment numbers (in fact, the best third quarter in the company’s history and only a smidgeon behind the record-highs of Q4 2023), shares in Tesla had reached a twelve-month high, only for disappointment at a Cybercab event earlier this month to put a lid on them once more,” Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth said.

“As a result, the shares are down over the past twelve months and Tesla is the only one of the Magnificent Seven to see such a decline.

“Indeed, the shares are down by almost 50% from their 2021 peak, despite ongoing investor enthusiasm for electric vehicles and autonomous driving and – more specifically to Tesla – the Cybertruck, Cybercab and the roll out of its supercharger network. Even so, the company still has a market valuation of nearly $700bn, a figure that rather dauntingly represents 100 times this year’s forecast net profits and more than 70 times next year’s, so maybe valuation does matter after all (in the end).

“At least the second-quarter results proved to be better than those of the first quarter, which had offered the lowest three-monthly profits since Q2 2021, a shrivelling of cash flow and a surge in inventory, and the third quarter production and delivery numbers have understandably led analysts to expect better again for the third quarter of 2024. Production rose 9% year-on-year and deliveries 6% for the July-to-September quarter.”

Thursday 24 October

  • Trading statements from RELX, London Stock Exchange, Anglo American, Inchape, Renishaw, Essentra, Dunelm, Bloomsbury Publishing and Luceco
  • Flash purchasing manufacturers indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services industries for Japan, Asia, Europe and US
  • US new homes sales
  • US weekly unemployment claims
  • In Japan, quarterly results from Canon and Renasas
  • In Asia, quarterly results from CNOOC, Hyundai Motor and Budweiser APAC Brewing
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Hermès, Atlas Copco, Equinor, UniCredit, Vinci, Dassault Systèmes, Danone, Beiersdorf, Kone, Orange, Alfa Laval, Norsk Hydro, Sodexo, BE Semiconductor, Renault and Stora Enso
  • In the US, quarterly results from Amazon, Union Pacific, Honeywell, UPS, Northrop Grumman, Keurig Dr Pepper, Dow, Western Digital, Hasbro, Southwest Airlines and US Steel
  • Unilever Q3 update

Friday 25 October

  • First-half results from Airtel Africa
  • Trading statement from Record
  • UK GfK consumer confidence
  • Belgian Courbe Synthetique industrial sentiment survey
  • German Ifo economic sentiment survey
  • US durable goods orders
  • In Japan, quarterly results from Fanuc
  • In Asia, quarterly results from ICBC, Ping An Insurance and Great Wall Motor
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Sanofi, Safran, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Holcim, ENI, Sika, SGS, SCA, Yara International, Konecranes, Rémy Cointreau and Kindred
  • In the US, quarterly results from Colgate-Palmolive and AON