Weekly outlook: Will the Fed cut again?

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 16 March

3 minutes

Monday 16 March

– Taylor Wimpey annual report

Tuesday 17 March

– Royal London Royal London annual results

– German Zew Survey

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager Sam Buckingham said the latest reading is for March which will incorporate the effect of coronavirus on the environment.

“February’s survey also included data from the beginning of the pandemic, which resulted in a sharp drop in sentiment – we expect more of the same, ” he added. “The virus’s effect on supply chains will hit export-intensive sectors and countries, Germany included. The euro area’s largest economy appeared to be beginning to move onto a positive trend at the end of last year, but this has been stopped severely in its tracks.”

– Tritax Big Box Reit final results

– UK unemployment rate

– Persimmon annual report

Wednesday 18 March

– Federal Open Market Committee meeting

The FOMC implemented an emergency 0.5% interest rate cut on 3 March with the Bank of England (BoE) following suit on 11 March.

“The committee is due to meet again on Wednesday, where it is expected to cut further in an effort to cushion the blow from the impact of coronavirus – a move that would be welcome by the US president, who labelled the Federal Reserve ‘pathetic’ and ‘slow moving’,” said Buckingham. “Beyond further cutting interest rates, it may also look to provide more liquidity to the banking system or even roll out new quantitative easing.”

– MJ Hudson interim results

– Wm Morrison Supermarkets Q4 2019 earnings

Analysts at the Share Centre said strong competition from the likes of Aldi and Lidl has made life difficult for the UK’s fourth-biggest supermarket, with its market share heading in the wrong direction.

“Restructuring plans have involved cost cutting, improving customer service and range of products. Operating cash flow has been improving leading to special dividends, but the last update in January posted falling like for like sales. Any comment regarding the tie up with Amazon will be worth noting.”

Thursday 19 March

– Bank of Japan meeting

Buckingham said much like the European Central Bank, the BoJ has less room to manoeuvre than the Fed or BoE when it comes to stimulating the economy by pulling monetary policy levers.

“Having said that, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said the central bank was ready to respond, following a meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,” he added.

– Ocado Group trading update

According to the Share Centre, Ocado recently revealed it has seen a sharp spike in orders, especially large orders, as a result of concerns around coronavirus.

“The market will also be looking for an update on its preparations for the much-anticipated start of the Marks & Spencer delivery service, which is due to happen in September,” the analysts added. “Prospects for the solutions business this year will also be of interest, especially fee income and any new contracts.”

– Next Q4 2019 trading update

Next has beaten market expectations with its recent trading updates so it will be interesting to see if the company can keep the run going with these full-year figures, said the Share Centre.

“Investors will be more focused on whether Next expects the steady growth in online sales to continue in the current year despite issues such as the ongoing Brexit negotiations and disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak. It may be too early for the company to say much on the latter but any comments on shareholder returns and special dividends will certainly be of interest.”

– US unemployment figures

Friday 20 March

– UK public sector net borrowing

– Blackrock North American Income Trust AGM

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