Weekly outlook: US economy set for sharp Q3 rebound as UK banks and Apple report

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 26 October

5 minutes

Monday 26 October 

-HM Treasury consultation on financial promotions approval regime closes 

-Q3 results from cruise ship operator Carnival 

-Nationwide UK house price index 

-German software company SAP and Swedish industrial manufacturer Atlas Copco release quarterly earnings 

-Google parent company Alphabet reports, alongside Twilio, NXP Semiconductors and Hasbro 

Tuesday 27 October 

-HSBC Q3 results 

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould notes HSBC shares remain at lows not seen since 1994 thanks to higher loan losses brought about by the Covid recession, falling interest rates which have compressed lending margins and the ongoing tensions iHong Kong which have seen the bank caught in the middle between Beijing and Washington DCHSBC’s Asia business is its key money maker, accounting for all of its stated pre-tax profit in the first half of the year. 

But Mould says analysts are predicting the bank’s next set of results will not be as dismal as its Q2 figures, with pre-tax profit expected to come in $1.0bn higher at $2.1bn though this is still less than half of what the bank made a year ago. 

 -Interim results from Bloomsbury Publishing and Premier-Inn owner Whitbread 

In its last trading update Whitbread revealed like-for-like hotel sales had plummeted by 78% in the 26-week period to 27 August. The Share Centre says the possibility of further restrictions as the UK battles a second wave of the virus heading into the winter season means shares will likely stay at depressed levels. 

US durable goods orders 

US Conference Board consumer confidence indicator 

Case-Shiller US house price index 

-Swiss pharma company Novartis, Banco Santander and Swedish manufacturer SKF report quarterly results 

-In the US, Pfizer, Merck, AMD, 3M and Caterpillar report 

Wednesday 28 October 

-Q3 trading statements from Next, Glaxosmithkline and Elementis 

The Share Centre notes Next’s sales have recovered well since the initial lockdown period even if its interim results in September were still below expectations. The high street retailer indicated sales in August had improved but has previously said it expects full-year sales to drop by 12%.  

-Interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada 

-US oil inventory data 

-Quarterly results from Sony in Japan and from BASF, Fiat-Chrysler and Deutsche Bank in Europe 

-Quarterly figures from Visa, Mastercard, PaypalBoeing, General Electric, Baidu, eBay, Ford and Lyft 

Thursday 29 October 

-US Q3 GDP 

The US economy shrank by 31.4% in the second quarter, following on from a 4.8% slump in Q1 as the effects of lockdown began to rip through the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a massive rebound in Q3 with the Atlanta Fed GDP Now survey predicting growth of 35.2%, Mould notes. 

-BT publishes H1 results 

The Share Centre says it has been a challenging period for Britain’s biggest telecoms group, which reported its first ever dividend cut in the previous quarter, as the Covid lockdown led to a drop in business activity and demand for its BT Sports channels. Revenue fell 7% in Q1 but with most professional football matches having resumed since July investors will be keen to see if this has picture has improved, the stockbroker notes.  

-Q3 trading statements for Royal Dutch Shell, BP WPP, Lloyds and Standard Chartered 

The Share Centre currently recommends Lloyds as a ‘hold’. With shares currently trading at a measly 29.6p Lloyds remains the cheapest of Britain’s high street banks by far. As one of the UK’s largest mortgage providers its fate is intertwined with the health of the housing market and the domestic economy which is why The Share Centre expects management to remain “very cautious in their outlook”. 

-Interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank 

In the US tech giants Amazon, Facebook and Apple publish quarterly results as well as Comcast, Newmont Mining, Spotify, Twitter, Kraft-Heinz, Yum! Brands and Kellogg  

Mould notes Apple has grown earnings per share in every quarter of its fiscal year to September despite the difficult backdrop of the pandemic thanks to the popularity of its gadgets and apps which have provided a welcome distraction to those stuck at home. Its digital services, which include its App Store, Apple Music, video and cloud tools, took in 15% higher sales in its fiscal third quarter which occurred during the calendar Q2 when lockdown restrictions were at their tightest. Over the same period Apple’s wearables and accessories took in 17% higher sales. However total revenue from its hardware items – iPhones, iMacs and iPads – was not as strong by comparison.

“Analysts are now looking ahead to an upgrade cycle driven by the 5G-enabled iPhone 12, although the shares have racked up their biggest ever six-month capital gain ahead of a product release of almost 61%, compared to the long-run average of 20%, to suggest a lot of good news may already be in the price on that front,” Mould cautions.

 -US weekly unemployment claims data 

-US pending homes sales 

-Quarterly results from Takeda Pharmaceutical, Toyota and semiconductor Rohm  

Quarterly results from ABInBev, Volkswagen, Airbus, Credit Suisse and Repsol report  

Friday 30 October 

-International Consolidated Airlines Group Q3 results 

British Airways owner IAG has been able to shore up extra liquidity via a €2.8bn rights issue in September but it is not out of the woods yet as the return of quarantine restrictions could see passenger numbers drop further, The Share Centre said. 

Nevertheless, the airline has pushed ahead with big changes, including redundancies, cuts in spending and deferring deliveries of aircraft, all of which investors will be hoping are enough to keep the company in a sustainable position. 

-Q3 results from Natwest and Glencore 

 DWP’s consultation “Improving outcomes for members of defined contribution pension schemes” closes 

-Japanese inflation data 

-Alibaba quarterly earnings 

Quarterly earnings from Total and Caixabank in Europe 

-In the US, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Colgate-Palmolive report 

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