Weekly outlook: UK unemployment expected to tick up amid local lockdowns; Land Securities and National Grid report

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 9 November

Photo by Ali Yaqub on Unsplash
Photo by Ali Yaqub on Unsplash

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Monday 9 November 

 Office for Tax Simplification Capital Gains Tax review, call for evidence and survey Part 2 (technical detail and operation of CGT) closes 

– Trading update from LSE-listed funeral operator Dignity 

– Softbank Q2 results 

Quarterly results from German silicon chip maker Infineon 

– McDonalds, Beyond Meat, Occidental Petroleum and Canopy Growth quarterly earnings 

Tuesday 10 November 

Land Securities interim results 

Shares in the Reit are currently trading at £5.50, less than half of the company’s last stated NAV per share figure of £11.92 which AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould notes is “investors’ polite way of saying that they think the company’s portfolio of property assets is going to keep falling in value”. Analysts are pencilling in more than a 10% drop in NAV to £10.50 over the interim period. 

Mould says it is unlikely that rent collection, vacancy rates and net debt will have improved on last year given the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. 

However, analysts will be hoping for an update on new CEO Mark Allan’s plans to restructure the portfolio by selling assets where it lacks scale like hotels, leisure parks and retail parks and generating growth from mixed-use, residential and commercial sites in major cities across the UK, he adds. 

– Interim results from DCC and Premier Foods 

Irish conglomerate DCC has seen mixed performance across its portfolio, according to The Share Centre, with its energy and B2B electronics distribution businesses suffering from reduced travel and activity during the first lockdown but its healthcare and environmental services benefitting from the pandemic.  

But with the second national lockdown in place the outlook for Q4 is “unlikely to be rosy”, the broker said, especially since the FTSE 100 business is dealing with rising debt levels thanks to a slew of recent acquisitions.  

– Trading statements from Persimmon, Meggitt and Direct Line 

The Share Centre notes Persimmon has proved more resilient than other peers in the housebuilding sector during the Covid crisis. The FTSE 100 firm avoided placing any of its staff on furlough allowing it to jumpstart operations more quickly when the first national lockdown ended. 

The market will be interested to see whether the suspension of stamp duty, and the recent trend that has seen more city residents to move to the suburbs, is helping Persimmon,” The Share Centre said.  

Any comments on how the current lockdown may impact the company and future dividends will also be very much in focus. 

 German ZEW industrial confidence indicator 

 US NFIB smaller companies confidence indicator 

 US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey 

– Adidas and Alstom report in Europe 

– Quarterly earnings from Lyft, Nio and Tencent Music 

Wednesday 11 November 

– UK unemployment figures 

The number of jobless people in the UK has continued to tick up despite the government’s best efforts to support the labour market by extending the furlough scheme. In the three months to August the unemployment rate hit a three-year high of 4.5%, meaning some 1.5 million people were out of work. 

Mould says that figure is likely to increase given the local lockdowns and fragile state of the economy covering the next reporting period.

Rising joblessness, and fears of further job losses, are acting to cap wage growth, which ebbed to zero in August,” Mould says. “Even with inflation pretty modest, that is not helpful for consumers’ ability to spend.” 

First-half results from Great Portland Estates and designer handbag maker Mulberry 

– Trading statements from Flutter Entertainment, Taylor Wimpey and JD Wetherspoon 

Bookmaker Flutter has benefited from a huge surge in online activity during the coronavirus pandemic, which boosted adjusted earnings up by 59% in the first half of the year. Its shares now trade at an all-time high of £13.90, up dramatically from £9.30 at the start of the year.  

The Share Centre recommends the stock as a ‘hold’ on the basis the outlook for the company remains “highly uncertain” with possible regulatory changes on the horizon thanks to increased government scrutiny on the gambling industry.  

Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision  

– Tencent and Hong Kong Exchanges quarterly earnings 

– German automotive parts maker Continental and Dutch bank ABN Amro quarterly results 

– US-listed Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com reports 

Thursday 12 November 

– National Grid Q2 figures 

Owing to the nature of its business the utility company has held up well during the pandemic and has increased its full year dividend payment by 2.6%, in line with inflation, which provides a stark contrast to the fifty plus FTSE 100 companies that have suspended, deferred or cut around £33bn worth of dividends this year, Mould notes 

That said National Grid still faces several challenges including £400m worth of additional Covid-related costs, a row over gas supply in New York and new price controls introduced by Ofgem as the UK regulator focuses on its green agenda.

Mould says: “In that context, analysts and investors will look to see if National Grid is changing any of its forward guidance for this year, the last one of this regulatory cycle, especially as it is pushing back hard on Ofgem’s proposals.  

“The key indicators are targeted asset growth of 5-7% a year; capital investment of £5bn, down a little from £5.4 billion a year ago; an increase of some £3bn in net debt, from last year’s level of £28.6bn.” 

– WH Smith full year results 

First-half results from B&M European Value Retail, Burberry and 3i 

B&M European Value has bucked the trend of retailers performing badly as it was able to keep some of its stores open during the initial lockdown period and enjoyed higher demand for its gardening supplies and DIY tools as consumers were stuck at home, The Share Centre says.  

“In these interim results, investors will be looking to see if the good trading reported in September has continued, and what expectations the company has for the new lockdown period, especially in the all-important run up to Christmas.” 

Trading statements from ITV, Grafton, OneSavingsBank and Vistry 

– UK monthly construction, manufacturing and industrial output data, plus GDP growth figures 

 US inflation figures 

– Quarterly results from Siemens and Deutsche Telekom 

– In the US Walt Disney, Cisco, Applied Materials and Palantir also release quarterly earnings 

Friday 13 November 

– Former camera maker Olympus reports quarterly earnings 

– Quarterly earnings from Italian infrastructure company Atlantia 

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