Monday 10 August
– US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts)
– Chinese inflation data
– Interim updates from shipping company Clarkson, investment trust RM Secured Direct Lending and power generation firm ContourGlobal
– In the US, miner Barrick Gold and hotel chain Marriott release quarterly results
Tuesday 11 August
– UK unemployment data
The jobless rate remained stuck at 3.9% in June, the lowest level in 40 years, as the government’s furlough scheme kept a lid on further losses. Data from the ONS shows over 9 million people were benefitting from the furlough scheme by the end of June compared with 28 million paid employees and 4.9 million who are self-employed.
With the furlough scheme in place until October Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager Sam Buckingham said it is unlikely there will be a rapid rise in the unemployment rate until later in the year, despite job cuts from a slew of employers in June like BP, Johnson Matthey, SSP, Easyjet and HSBC. “But we do expect it to begin to rise more gradually,” he added.
– H1 results from Petrofac, Prudential, SDL International, Gamesys, Intercontinental Hotels Group and Domino’s Pizza
– Quilter half year update
Over the first quarter the wealth manager revealed negative market movements from the Covid sell-off had wiped £15.6bn from its assets under management, which stood at £95.3bn by the end of March, down from £110.4bn at the end of December 2019.
Though Quilter CEO Paul Feeney said lower AUM will have an impact on revenues, he noted the vast majority of these are recurring by nature, adding that the firm had a “robust” business model with strong capital and cash levels to weather the Covid uncertainty.
– Ruffer Investment Company final results
– Derwent London H1 results
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said given Derwent London’s broad spread of tenants across the media industry, professional services, retail head offices and retail and leisure sites it serves as a “good litmus test” for how commercial property landlords are navigating the Covid crisis.
The Reit, which counts the UK government, Burberry, Ticketmaster and Sony Pictures among its largest clients, revealed it had received 81% of the rent due on its £5.5bn collection of properties in Q1 and 70% of payments in Q2 where 9% more was due to come, 9% were on payment plans, 4% had been waived and 8% was outstanding.
Derwent has grown its NAV per share every year since 2008, Mould notes, and has a “stunning track record of dividend growth” but both runs could come to an end in 2020 thanks to the global pandemic.
However he added Derwent London still has a robust balance sheet, ending 2019 with £982m of net debt for a loan-to-value ratio of 16.9%.
– German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
– US NFIB smaller companies sentiment survey
– US mortgage delinquency data
Wednesday 12 August
– UK Q2 GDP growth
Last Thursday the Bank of England revealed it didn’t expect GDP to exceed pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021.
Though the central bank admitted the initial hit from Covid lockdown measures had not been as severe as anticipated, it forecast output would still be 20% lower in Q2 compared with a year ago.
“If the central bank’s forecasts end up being overly-optimistic then we would expect it to implement further stimulus, probably in the form of quantitative easing as opposed to a shift to negative interest rates,” Buckingham said.
– US Federal Budget deficit data
– US inflation data
– H1 results from Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Just Eat Takeaway.com, Avast, Balfour Beatty
– Admiral first-half results
The Confused.com owner, has provided £110m worth of rebates to motor customers and £80m worth of price cuts for customers struggling to meet their monthly payments and has not used any of the government’s support schemes, keeping all staff on full pay, all of which have helped create a “picture of financial strength and confidence in the underlying business,” Mould said.
The company deferred its annual special dividend, bowing to pressure from the Prudential Regulatory Authority, but outgoing CEO David Stevens has said the missing payment will still be distributed this year, resulting in a total dividend of 136p per share for 2020.
Analysts will be watching for changes in customer numbers, which rose 7% to 7 million last year, and its solvency ratio, which was 190% at the end of 2018, Mould said.
Any updates on Brexit will also be of interest, he added. “The company has not flagged any major concerns, but it does have those operations in Spain, France and Italy so leaving the EU without a deal in place could pose some issues over market access.”
– Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
– US oil inventory data
– Tencent, Foxconn and Hon Hai quarterly results
– In Europe, quarterly results from Vestas Wind Systems and ABN Amro
– Results from Cisco and Peloton Systems
Thursday 13 August
– H1 results from Tui, Ryanair, National Express and GVC
– US weekly unemployment claims
– In Asia, quarterly results from Ping An
– Carlsberg and ThyssenKrupp report in Europe
– Quarterly results from Alibaba and Applied Materials in the US
Friday 14 August
– First-half results from car retailer Lookers
– US retail sales data
Retail sales grew 7.5% in June, well ahead of consensus and following on from a massive 18.2% jump in May.
“What has certainly boosted consumer spending to some degree has of course been the expanded jobless benefits,” said Buckingham. “Early estimates for July are for the growth to slow but remain positive at 1.3%.”
– US industrial production and capacity utilisation rate figures
– Quarterly results from Australia-based Newcrest Mining
