Monday 6 January
- Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for services industries in Asia, the EU, UK and USA
- US factory orders
Tuesday 7 January
- Halifax UK house price index
- UK purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the construction industry
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in the USA
- In the EU, quarterly results or trading updates from Sodexo, Volvo Car and Norwegian Air Shuttle
- BRC retail sales monitor
Following the rush of Christmas shopping, monthly readings for the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) UK retail sales monitor and UK shop price index will be released on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
Markets will eye the year-on-year rate of change, which could limit interest rate cuts in the case of acceleration. Consumers and politicians, however, will look to cumulative inflation change, which at the last reading sat at 2.6% year on year.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “A 2.6% year-on-year increase in the UK’s consumer price index, at the latest reading, is a little uncomfortable for Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee, but it takes the cumulative increase in the CPI to 24.5% over the past five years.
“That is why consumers are feeling the pinch and why they are still seeking meaty wage increases.”
Costs for stores, including increased utility bills in winter months, as well as higher wage and national insurance contributions, could translate to higher prices for customers. In addition, the performance of the Christmas season could play into figures.
“The index may also give some indication of how Christmas went for retailers,” the AJ Bell team said.
“If sell-through was strong, and inventory light as a result, then there could be less discounting to shift unsold goods, but in the opposite case, a weak festive season for volumes could force some additional price-cutting.”
In November’s reading, the BRC had a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, however, month-on-month, the price index rose for the first time since May.
Wednesday 8 January
- Trading update from Shell
- German factory orders
- ADP payrolls survey in the USA
- US oil inventories
- In the USA, quarterly results from Jefferies Financial and Albertsons
Thursday 9 January
- Trading statements from Tesco, Unite, B&M European Value Retail, Greggs and Hilton Food
- Japanese wage growth
- Chinese inflation figures
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas US job cuts survey
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In Japan, quarterly results from Fast Retailing and bid target Seven & i Holdings
- In the USA, quarterly results from Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots Alliance
- Marks & Spencer trading update
Marks & Spencer will release its Christmas trading update on Thursday, with shares currently at the highest level since 2016.
While M&S produced impressive results for its first-half results in November, chief executive Stuart Machin has emphasised long-term sustainable growth. Typically, the second half of the year, which includes the Christmas season, is an even stronger period for the retailer.
“Attention will initially turn to the like-for-like sales growth numbers from the Food and Clothing & Home operations (as well as the international operation where sales fell 10% in the first half and M&S has started to plan for a major turnaround, by strengthening management, reducing costs, trimming stock levels and improving ranges),” Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth said.
“Both segments performed strongly in the second quarter, with online sales at Clothing & Home (up 16.5%) showing real progress, even as store sales rose by 4.2% year-on-year.”
The food delivery venture with Ocado will also produce a trading update, with the service currently remaining in the red. In the half-year results, M&S represented 30% of total volume shipped but sales increased 14% year-on-year.
“More strategically, the company may talk about the ongoing integration of online logistics specialist Gist, the £500 million cost efficiencies target and the ongoing drive to add one percentage point of market share in both Food and Clothing & Home,” the AJ Bell team said.
“All of these are designed to feed into the long-term goals of a 4%-plus operating margin in Food and a 10%-plus return on sales from Clothing & Home.”
Friday 10 January
- Trading update from Sainsbury’s
- In the USA, quarterly results from BlackRock and Delta Air Lines