Monday 29 August
- – First-half results from Phoenix Group and Thungela Resources
- – Rightmove UK house price index
- – US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
- – In Australia, quarterly results from iron ore miner Fortescue Metals
Tuesday 30 August
- – First-half results from Bunzl and Uniphar
- – UK mortgage approvals
For the seventh time in 12 months, mortgage approvals fell month-on-month in June to 63,726, marking the eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year declines.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said: “Perhaps most tellingly, that figure also undershot the 12-month average that prevailed in the lead up to the pandemic, as the shot in the arm provided to the market by the government’s stamp duty land tax break during the viral outbreak wears off.
“Monthly approvals are no higher now than they were in summer 2013, shortly after the launch of Help to Buy by then-chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne.
“There are several possible explanations for this slide in mortgage applications – although the quoted housebuilders continue to assert that demand for new dwellings remains strong. One is the loss of the stamp duty land tax exemption, and another is the imminent closure of Help to Buy – unless the government grants a further exemption and provides yet another example of former US president Ronald Reagan’s maxim, ‘nothing lasts longer than a temporary government programme’.”
- – Japanese unemployment
- – US Case-Shiller house price index
- – US Conference Board consumer confidence survey
- – US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts)
- – In Asia, quarterly results from Baidu
- – In the US, quarterly results from HP Inc, HP Enterprise and BestBuy
Wednesday 31 August
- – First-half results from Chesnara and Bens Creek
- – Chinese purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services
- – UK Nationwide house price survey
- – EU flash inflation figures
- – US oil inventories
- – US national employment survey
Mould said: “The ADP National Employment survey […] looks at how many jobs America created last month. This is a bit of an odd one, as ADP suspended its survey in June while it—and I quote—’retooled’ the report to make it more robust. This came after regular criticism that the ADP findings bore little, if any, relation to the government survey which comes two days later.
“For May, the last reading data showed 128,000 new jobs added, the smallest gain since the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020.”
- – In Asia, quarterly results from ICBC and Cosco Shipping
- – In the US, quarterly results from CostCo and Jack Daniel’s distiller Brown-Forman
Thursday 1 September
- – Full-year results from Johnson Service Group
- – First-half results from PPHE Hotel
- – OPEC meeting
- – Final PMIs for manufacturing in Asia, EU, UK and US
- – US monthly car sales
- – US weekly unemployment claims
A day after the above-mentioned ADP report, the US releases the Challenger, Gray & Christmas job losses survey. “The last reading here was 25,810 for July,” said Mould, “which is the second-highest reading so far in 2022 and represents a 36% increase from the year before.
“Though the figures are still low by historic standards, and it’s too early to say that the Challenger survey is definitively pointing toward a recession.”
- – In Europe, quarterly results from Pernod Ricard
- – In the US, quarterly results from Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Hormel Foods, Campbell Soup and Ciena
Friday 2 September
- – Trading statement from Ashmore Group
- – UK construction industry PMI
- – US factory orders
- – US jobs report
Mould continued: “We get the big [report] on Friday 2 September. That is the non-farm payrolls survey from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as the American government gives its verdict on job creation last month, relative to the privately-backed survey by ADP.
“The non-farm payrolls figure for July was strong, as it showed the addition of 528,000 jobs, the second-highest reading in 2022. The official U3 unemployment rate is just 3.5% and the U6 rate is 6.7% so the labour market is tight, especially in the context of a job vacancies figure that still exceeds one million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, or Jolts.
“The result could be wage growth. Economists, central bankers, investors and politicians will therefore also keep an eye on the average hourly pay number. Last month it was $32.27, 5.2% higher than the year before, lower than inflation but probably enough to have central bankers on edge as they continue to fret about a pay-price-pay-price spiral which entrenches inflation, at least if the 1970s is any guide,” he said.
