Monday 12 August
- US Federal monthly budget deficit (or surplus)
- First-half results from Marshalls
- In the US, quarterly results from Barrick Gold
Tuesday 13 August
- First-half results from Dowlais, Just Group, Genuit and Network International
- German ZEW economic sentiment survey
- US producer price inflation
- US NFIB smaller companies survey
- In Asia, quarterly results from Sea
- In Europe, quarterly results from Henkel, Pandora and HelloFresh
- In the US, quarterly results from Home Depot, Flutter Entertainment, Ten Cent Music, Franco-Nevada, Coherent and Wolfspeed
- UK unemployment data
The Office for National Statistics will release the unemployment and inflation rate for the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Inflation for June remained at 2%, the Bank of England’s target number, and was followed by an interest rate cut to 5% from 5.25%. In the last employment reading which took into account the three months to May, employment sat at 4.4%.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, and Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, said: “That was unchanged from April and remains low by historical standards, but it still represented a marked step up from the low of 3.6% reached in August 2022 and the highest reading since September 2021.
“As such the Bank of England will be on alert, even if slack in the jobs market may take some of the heat out of wage demands, which remain a concern for policymakers as a potential source of sustained inflation – total pay growth, including bonuses, was 5.7% year-on-year in May.”
Added together, the inflation and unemployment readings create the ‘Misery Index’, created by economist Arthur Okun, which currently sits at 6.4.
“That is below the post-January 2000 average of 8.0 and may offer consumers some breathing space after a very difficult few years, even if inflation could rebound a little in the second half, thanks to the base effect of energy prices,” the AJ Bell team said.
“There are also gathering concerns that Western economies may be slowing down faster than policymakers have anticipated, as the monetary medicine of the interest rate increases pushed through between December 2021 and August 2023 has gradually taken effect, but a lower misery index reading and interest rate cuts could provide a helpful economic backdrop for the new Labour government.”
Wednesday 14 August
- First-half results from Balfour Beatty
- Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- US consumer price inflation
- US oil inventories
- In Asia, quarterly results from Hon Hai Precision, China Unicom and Samsonite
- In Europe, quarterly results from UBS, E.On, Hapag-Lloyd, Vestas Wind Systems, Carlsberg, Glanbia, TUI and Thyssen Krupp
- In the US, quarterly results from Cisco
- UK inflation data
Aviva will share its first-half results on Wednesday, following shares reaching 12-month highs before the market selloff on 5 August.
The success for shares comes with chief executive Dame Amanda Blanc’s strategy to streamline the business by focusing on British, Irish and Canadian operations; Aviva Investors; and areas with looser regulatory capital requirements.
In the first-half update, analysts keep eyes on Aviva’s medium-term goals, including £2bn in annual operating profit by 2026 and £5.8bn of dividends and share buybacks from 2024-2026.
In 2023, Aviva increased its dividend by 8%, leading to an upgraded 2024 target of “mid-single digit” growth.
“In the first quarter trading update, Aviva flagged a strong set of numbers,” Mould and Hewson said.
“Aviva also continues to return cash to shareholders via share buybacks. The company completed a £300 million buyback in 2023 and immediately launched an identical scheme for 2024. Add together the forecast dividend (£950 million) and the buyback and Aviva is expected to return almost 10% of its market capitalisation in cash to its shareholders this year alone.”
Thursday 15 August
- First-half results from Rank and ITM Power
- UK GDP growth
- UK manufacturing, construction and industrial output
- US retail sales
- US industrial production
- US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- Chinese tangible fixed asset investment, retail sales and industrial production growth figures
- In Australia, quarterly results from Telstra
- In Asia, quarterly results from Lenovo
- In Europe, quarterly results from Ørsted and Christian Hansen
- In the US, quarterly results from Wal-Mart, Applied Materials, Deere, Grab and Tapestry
Friday 16 August
- UK retail sales
- US new housing permits
- US new housing starts
- In Europe, quarterly results from Kingspan
