Monday 13 January
– UK monthly and quarterly GDP figures
“In the UK economic data should come back to the top of news headlines again starting on Monday with the latest monthly and quarterly GDP figures,” said The Share Centre investment research analyst Helal Miah.
“For November we may have seen the economy flat line for the second month in a row while both industrial and manufacturing data for the same month are likely to shows falls on a year over year basis.”
– US federal budget balance
Tuesday 14 January
– Taylor Wimpey results
The second trading week of 2020 kicks off with results from Taylor Wimpey. Shares in the FTSE 100 housebuilder proved resilient last year, gaining 33% in value over the period, which AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said was thanks to its “huge dividend yield”, a low interest rate environment and hopes that a Boris Johnson-led Tory government would be more supportive for the housing market.
“The firm should provide some insight into the UK’s housing market and economy, while from a stock market perspective it is currently the second-highest yielding stock in the FTSE 100, according to analysts’ consensus forecasts, trailing only Imperial Brands,” Mould said.
Analysts will be paying close attention to headline figures like completion and average selling prices, as well as profits which are expected to come in at £820m before taxes, he said.
They will also looking to see if chief executive Pete Redfern reaffirms the company’s cash return policy.
“Taylor Wimpey is looking to return just over £600m to shareholders for 2019. That equates to just over 18p a share and it is that sum which underpins the double-digit dividend yield on the stock,” said Mould.
“Shareholders will also be looking toward Mr Redfern for any forecasts on cash returns for 2020, as the builder had a net cash balance sheet at the end of last year to the tune of £644m,” he added.
-US Smaller Companies Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business
Mould said recent figures “have been encouraging of late” with the last NFIB reading coming out at 104.7, “only a handful of points below August’s 2018’s all-time high of 108.8”.
Wednesday 15 January
– Persimmon trading update
– UK inflation rate
Analysts expect there to be “a significant gap” between the actual numbers around 1.5% and the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%, said Miah.
– The first of eight editions of the US ‘Beige Book’ is due out, featuring anecdotal evidence from the regional Federal Reserve banks on the state of the American economy.
Of all the US macro reports out this week Mould thinks the Beige Book findings could most influence thinking at the Federal Open Markets Committee as it preps for its first policy meeting of the year on 28-29 January. The Fed’s stated policy is to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% throughout 2020.
Thursday 16 January
– Hays Q2 statement
– National Association of House Builders (NAHB) publishes its Housing Market index
Friday 17 January
– UK retail sales
The UK high street is expected to deliver a poor set of numbers for December compared with the month before where Black Friday helped boost sales. Analysts are predicting a month on month fall of -0.6%.
