Monday 10 February
– Chinese inflation figures and new loans data
– In Europe, quarterly results from Moncler
Tuesday 11 February
– Ocado full-year results
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said the figures will give an update on how Ocado is progressing from a domestic loss-making grocery delivery firm to an international technology provider of online delivery solutions.
He said analysts and shareholders will be looking at four elements in the results: sales; average orders per week; average basket size; and profit.
“After their meteoric gains of 2018, shares in Ocado have gone sideways for most of the past year and they trade some 15% below their £14.35 all-time high, thanks in part to last February’s fire at its third customer fulfilment centre in Hampshire, although the fourth CFC at Erith has helped to take up some of the slack.”
– UK retail sales, balance of trade and industrial and manufacturing production
– UK GDP
GDP declined by 0.3% in November, meaning for the UK to avoid a contraction in activity over Q4 2019, the economy will need to have expanded by more than 0.2% in December, noted Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager and international equity analyst Dan Smith.
He said: “Considering December was a month plagued by political uncertainty and retail sales have already shown a more cautious consumer over the period, this figure looks challenging. While a contraction in activity over the quarter will likely dampen sentiment towards the UK, it may not totally alter the outlook for 2020, as recent data has shown enough green shoots to raise hopes for a Boris bounce.”
– FCA occasional paper on bond market liquidity
Wednesday 12 February
– US crude oil inventories
– EU industrial production figures
– Heineken and Akzo Nobel quarterly results
Thursday 13 February
– Barclays full-year results
Mould said the bank is starting to put upheaval over the intervention of activist Edward Bramson behind it, for now at least, and the PPI compensation payments deadline is also now in the past, despite leaving a bill of £11.2bn.
“Despite that final PPI cost, Barclays is still expected by analysts to increase its full-year pre-tax profit to £5.4bn in 2019 from £3.5bn in 2018,” he said. “The consensus estimate is looking for another small gain to £6.1bn in 2020.”
– US CPI
– Germany CPI
– Centrica first-half results and Relx full-year results
– In Europe Nestlé, Airbus, Credit Suisse, Thyssen Krupp and Commerzbank quarterly results
– In the US Alibaba, PepsiCo and Kraft-Heinz quarterly results
Friday 14 February
– Astrazeneca full-year results
Mould said the results will be interesting after rival Glaxosmithkline disappointed with its full-year results and guidance for 2020, especially as Astrazeneca CEO Pascal Soriot is also focusing on replenishing the drug firm’s pipeline of new medicines.
Astrazeneca now has 164 treatments in phase I, II or III trials or entering life cycle management across oncology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, and respiratory.
“Shareholders are starting to feel the benefit,” added Mould. “The shares stand way above Pfizer’s £55 offer price of 2014 and Astrazeneca raised its 2019 sales growth outlook twice last year.”
– Germany Q4 GDP estimate
Smith said all signs are positive for consumers to remain upbeat with a robust jobs market, rising employment and wages growing above the rate of inflation. Trade wars are also less of a concern after the signing of a phase one trade deal between the US and China.
“Retail sales therefore are expected to continue to grow at a healthy rate of 0.3% in January, which will be a positive outcome for the prospects of the US economy,” he added.
“The one curve ball that could throw consumer spending off track could be the coronavirus, however news of its outbreak was only seen towards the end of the month, suggesting it may be too early to have had an impact on this month’s data.”
