Monday 17 August
– Living longer: implications of childlessness among tomorrow’s older population – ONS report
– Full-year results from BHP Group
– Empire State Manufacturing survey from the New York Federal Reserve in the USA
– NAHB house builders’ confidence survey in the USA
– In Asia, quarterly results from Volvo-owner Geely Automotive
Tuesday 18 August
– Persimmon H1 results
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould says the house builder is still trying to put rows over executive pay and the quality of its houses behind it, as it prepares to welcome Dean Finch as its new chief executive. Analysts are currently predicting a 30% drop in full-year profits and will also be keeping an eye on operating margin in the results, Mould says. Persimmon’s margin of 31% was the highest among quoted house builders in 2019.
The planned expiry of help-to-buy in 2023 continues to loom, he adds. In its 2019 financial year, 43% of Persimmon’s volumes were sold to customers who used Help to Buy and 50% of the total went to first-time buyers. From April, only first-time buyers will be able to access the scheme.
– US housing permits and new housing starts data
– H1 results from TI Fluid Systems and oil services and equipment specialist Wood Group
– In Europe, quarterly results from Coloplast and Pandora
– In the US, quarterly results from Wal-Mart and Home Depot
Wednesday 19 August
– UK inflation figures
Inflation came in at 0.9%, according to the Bank of England’s preferred CPIH indicator. “Fuel costs may have gone up a bit this time round and it will be interesting to see if any other costs start to tick up because of the effects of the pandemic, or the Bank of England’s money printing or the Government’s spending and increased budget deficit,” says Mould.
Inflation could hurt consumer confidence if it starts to leave wage growth behind, he says. Total pay fell 1.2% year-on-year in the three months to June, according to the latest data from the ONS.
– EU inflation figures
– US oil inventory data
– H1 results from silver producer Hochschild Mining
– In Europe, quarterly results from shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk
– In the US, quarterly results from NVIDIA, Analog Devices and Target
Thursday 20 August
– GCSE results day in England and Wales
– US weekly unemployment claims
– Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
– In Asia, quarterly results from Alibaba and Qantas
– In the USA, quarterly results from Estee Lauder, VM Ware, spam maker Hormel Food and Dollar Tree
Friday 21 August
– UK consumer confidence
“Retailers, restaurateurs and leisure groups will all be hoping to see some improvement here,” says Mould. The last reading according to the monthly GfK survey was -27 in July.
But Aviva workplace savings manager Laura Stewart-Smith says any gains in consumer confidence levels will be partially offset by the trajectory of the UK economy and the virus. “The possibility of a second wave of infections is raising concerns over the reintroduction of lockdown measures. Latest economic data may be enough to deter consumers from reverting to pre-pandemic spending levels, resulting in a slower recovery.”
– UK government borrowing figures
– Monthly property transactions above £40,000 – HMRC
– UK retail sales figures
Aviva head of savings and retirement Alistair McQueen says UK GDP and labour market figures will cast a shadow over retail sales data. The UK economy contracted a record 20.4% in Q2 while ONS figures show almost 750,000 people in the UK have lost their jobs during the coronavirus crisis.
“While attempts to increase footfall to our high streets – including the Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cuts – have been successful, a rapid recovery still seems unlikely,” McQueen says. “With the depth of the recession now confirmed and the winding down of the furlough scheme, many consumers are likely to remain cautious with spending in the long-term.”
– US existing homes sales data
– Full-year results from bingo hall and casinos operator Rank
– In the USA, quarterly results from agricultural equipment maker Deere and Foot Locker
