Weekly outlook: UK braces for ‘fairly horrific’ monthly GDP and Federal Reserve meets

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 8 June

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Monday 8 June

– Chinese trade balance data

Tuesday 9 June

– Aveva Group Q4 2020 earnings release

The Share Centre said in a recent update management indicated full-year revenues to March would grow by 9% with recurring revenues accounting for 60%. “The full year results will only have captured the very beginning of the Covid crisis but events since then suggest that big industrial customers such as oil and mining groups’ retrenchment on capital expenditure programmes will impact upon business during the first quarter,” it added.

– Trading statement from British American Tobacco

– Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust final results

– British Retail Consortium UK retail sales data

– Opec meeting

– US NFIB smaller companies confidence survey

– US Job Openings and Labour Turnover survey (Jolts)

Wednesday 10 June

– US inflation report

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager Sam Buckingham said during lockdown, consumer spending on things like travel and apparel has fallen off a cliff, resulting in US core consumer prices in April dropping by the most on record – since 1957 – down 0.4% from March.

“The fall for headline CPI in April was even larger at -0.8% due to it including gasoline prices, which slumped 20.6%. Early estimates for May’s release are for 0.0% growth from April’s level for both headline and core CPI. The year-on-year rate is expected to continue its drift lower, with the annualised headline figure down to just 0.2%.”

– Federal Open Market Committee meeting

Buckingham noted the US Federal Reserve has implemented a range of policy tools to combat the Covid-19 crisis, including slashing interest rates and swelling its balance sheet with further quantitative easing.

He said: “While the market is not expecting any changes in terms of interest rates at this meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell has suggested it is willing, and has the tools, to further expand the scope and depth of its actions if required.”

– Shaftesbury first half results

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said real estate investment trust (Reit) Shaftesbury may be pleased to get Samuel Tak Lee off its back, but whether CEO Brian Bickell is thrilled to see another Reit, Capital & Counties, snap up the Hong Kong magnate’s 26.3% stake is another matter.

“With sentiment toward, and valuations within, large portions of the real estate sector so depressed it is tempting to wonder whether there will be a wave of consolidation – which makes Brookfield’s purchase of a 7.3% stake in British Land equally intriguing,” he added.

– Full-year results from Londonmetric Property

– Opec meeting

– Chinese inflation data

– US oil inventories data

Thursday 11 June

– Johnson Matthey Q4 2020 earnings release

The Share Centre noted it had already been flagged that the group’s profits would take a hit somewhere in the region of £50m from the coronavirus due to a combination of reduced demand for its Clean Air segment and delayed shipments. It said it is still uncertain whether management will be in the position to provide guidance for the coming year.

“Despite this, the group operates a solid balance sheet and has good access to funding if required which should help ease some investor concerns.”

– Full-year results from B&M European Value Retail, Babcock and TalkTalk

– In Europe, quarterly results from Atlantia

– In the US, quarterly results from Adobe and Lululemon

Friday 12 June

– UK GDP growth (April)

Buckingham noted March’s GDP figures showed a contraction of 5.8% – the fastest monthly rate of shrinking on record and unfortunately, paving the way for an unavoidably significant recession.

“Considering the UK’s lockdown was in place for only seven working days in March, we are braced for a fairly horrific number for April on Friday,” he said. “For reference, the Bank of England foresees a 25% contraction in the second quarter.”

 

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