Weekly outlook: Tesco and Imperial Brands to report

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29 September 2023

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Hannah Williford

Monday 2 October

Full-year results from James Halstead
Japanese Tankan survey
Purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing industries from Japan, Asia, Europe the UK and the US

Tuesday 3 October

First-half results from Boohoo and S&U
Trading statements from Greggs and Gooch & Housego
Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
US car sales
In the US, quarterly results from McCormick and NovaGold

Wednesday 4 October

Trading statement from Topps Tiles
Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Purchasing managers’ indices for services industries from Japan, Asia, Europe the UK and the US
OPEC+ meeting
US factory orders
US oil inventories
Tesco half-year results

Supermarket chain Tesco will report its first-half results on Wednesday.

While discount shopping options including Aldi and Lidl have grown their share of the grocery market dramatically in recent times, Tesco continues to lead the sector and has increased its market share to 27.3% from 26.9% since last year, according to Kantar Worldpanel data.

The firm’s share price has increased by a fifth in the past year.

Expenses for Tesco have also risen, causing speculation that higher prices could be on the horizon.

Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director and Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, said: “This is a difficult balancing act. We all have to eat, drink and keep our houses clean but at the same time we may buy less, or at least trade down through brands, when times get tough.

“Analysts and shareholders will therefore study the Tesco statement very carefully for comments on input costs and pricing and margin strategies, as well as looking out for how they may be impacting the reported numbers.”

Mould and Hewson added that within the first half results, analysts are likely to focus on like-for-like sales growth, operating profit, operating free cash flow, and cash returns to shareholders.

At this time last year, operating profit finished the first half with an adjusted operating profit of £1.3bn. Tesco is aiming for between £1.4bn and £1.8bn in free operating cash flow for the year.

Thursday 5 October

First-half results from Vertu Motors
Trading statements from Pennon and Ferrexpo
Purchasing managers’ index for the construction industry in the UK
In Asia, monthly sales figures from silicon chip foundry UMC
In the US, quarterly results from Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss
Imperial Brands full-year trading update

Imperial Brands will release its full-year trading statement on Thursday, ahead of the firm’s final results to come in November.

The statement comes as Imperial shares have dropped almost 10% in a year and questions are raised about the ESG implications for the firm.

“Even those investors who do not run strict ESG screens must continue to ponder the long-term future for smoking in the wake of a respiratory virus pandemic; the ongoing regulatory pushback against the industry; and Imperial’s own efforts to adapt to the possibility of a brave new world by developing its next-generation products (NGPs),” Mould and Hewson said.

Currently, Mould and Hewson say there are rumours of a slowly imposed smoking ban in the UK that would outlaw smoking with a rising age restriction.

In response to concerns, Imperial Brands plans to continue the five-year agenda put in place by chief executive Stefan Bomhard, which includes simplifying operation costs; focusing on their primary markets of the US, Germany, UK, Australia, and Spain; and delve into next generation products.