Monday 2 March
– UK construction, manufacturing and services PMIs
– Germany, European Union and US manufacturing PMIs
– Greencoat Renewables final results
Tuesday 3 March
– Super Tuesday
In the US, the Democratic primaries will get into full swing when a number of states, including Texas and California, vote for the nominee to go against Donald Trump in the US election later this year.
Share Centre senior analyst Ian Forrest reckons markets would be reassured if Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg or Mike Bloomberg emerge as a clear front runner but may wobble if Bernie Sanders maintains or extends his lead. “The UK market often follows what happens in the US, especially the larger companies in the FTSE 100 index, so it might fall back if Sanders continues to do well, but investors shouldn’t panic just yet as there’s still a long way to go,” Forrest said.
– Ashtead Group Q3 2020 earnings
Analysts at the Share Centre said the market will be focused mainly on the performance in the key US market but will also be taking note of any comment on the UK operations.
“Those are a smaller part of the business but in December the company warned on challenging conditions in the UK and said it was to take action to deal with it. The shares have brushed that off in recent times, reaching a new record high in the past two weeks.”
– EU unemployment rate
Wednesday 4 March
– Legal & General Group Q4 2019 earnings
The group reported a good set of half year numbers as operating profits grew by 11% and with senior management saying the retirement business is strong, we can expect some of this to carry on into the second half, said the Share Centre.
“There may have been some impetus in the final quarter with funds flowing in following the end of the Brexit impasse and decisive general election result lifting some market uncertainty, investors would expect assets under management to set new records.”
– Lloyds Banking Group final results
– China Caixin Service PMI sentiment survey
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager and international equity analyst Dan Smith noted the service sector has grown in significance and now accounts for more than half of the Chinese economy.
“Confidence among service sector firms will therefore provide a vital gauge into the impact that the coronavirus crisis has had on economic activity. With cities on lockdown – employees banned from the workplace or advised to work from home and restaurants, shopping malls and cinemas all closed – it looks a near-certainty that service sector sentiment will plunge this week.”
– UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI
Smith said with each week that passes there appears to be more evidence of a Boris bounce taking hold, especially in the housing and jobs markets, as well as signs of a rebound in consumer spending from January’s retail sales figures.
“This week sees the release of the service sector sentiment survey, an important indicator considering the service sector accounts for around 70% of the UK economy,” he added.
Thursday 5 March
– Schroders Q4 2019 earnings
The Share Centre said Schroders’ results should reflect the rise in markets in the final months of 2019, but the market prefers to look ahead and the outlook on the global economy in light of the coronavirus will be worth noting.
“To a certain extent taking a view on the company is a proxy on the markets. If you think the markets are going up then the company is in a sector which will benefit and probably outperform. Of course, the opposite could be true if the market turns bearish, although it is viewed as being more defensive than some of its peers.”
– Aviva Q4 2019 earnings
Aviva has underperformed its peers in the sector as markets take the view that management lacks strategic direction for the group, Share Centre analysts said. In this regard investors will focus on signs of any change in forward strategic thinking from its leaders.
“The new management team though are considering options for parts of its Asian business. The business may though have seen renewed activity in the final quarter as a degree of uncertainty in the UK was lifted following the general election result. There is an expectation that operating profits continued to improve from the previous year with a solid dividend.”
– Brooks Macdonald interim results
– Gresham House final results
Friday 6 March
– US non-farm payrolls
Smith said the US economy added more jobs than expected in January – 225,000 versus an expected 158,000 – and average hourly wages also came in higher than anticipated, up 3.1% for the year.
“Investors are expecting this positive trend to continue in February with the US expected to add 190,000 jobs over the month. The coronavirus could apply some downward pressure to the employment numbers, but this is unlikely given the closed nature of the US economy.”
