Weekly outlook: Sainsbury's fighting to protect market share

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30 June 2023

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Monday 3 July

First-half results from Porvair

Tuesday 4 July

Full-year results from CML Microsystems
First-quarter results from Sainsbury’s

The big supermarket chains are a measure of inflation and how shoppers are responding to it, according to AJ Bell’s Russ Mould and Danni Hewson.

Sainsbury’s shares are trading no higher now than they did in spring 1989 – margins are tightening and Mould and Hewson pointed out that Aldi and Lidl continue to gobble up market share. According to the latest survey from consultants Kantar Worldpanel, Mould and Hewson said Sainsbury’s lost market share in the 12 weeks to the end of June on a year-on-year basis (although Asda and Morrisons lost more).

Analysts will look towards costs, pricing, and volumes in the trading update, especially if there is any evidence that customers are trading down to cheaper brands or cutting out some purchases altogether. Mould and Hewson noted that Tesco’s first-quarter trading statement in June featured warnings to this effect and disappointed the market, as it showed a 1.5% like-for-like drop in sales.

Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said with the cost-of-living crisis rumbling on, Sainsbury’s is throwing a lot at becoming better value. However, he said that comes at a cost, and analysts saw full-year profits fall as a result.

Chiekrie added: “Given the tough economic backdrop and shrinking consumer budgets, Sainsbury’s needs to keep getting its hands dirty and fighting for market share with other supermarkets. Grocery competition is already fierce, and that puts a firm ceiling on margins in the near term. It’s unclear when things will normalise.

“A 3-year, £1.3bn cost-saving program has progressed well so far, providing some slight relief to margins in the meantime.”

Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
Purchasing managers’ indices for services industries for Asia, Europe, UK and USA
US factory orders

Wednesday 5 July

Trading statements from Robert Walters and Topps Tiles
Purchasing managers’ index for the construction industry in the UK
German factory orders
US oil inventories
In Asia, a trading update from semiconductor foundry UMC
In Europe, quarterly results from Bang & Olufsen

Thursday 6 July

Full-year results from Currys

Back in May, less than two months after a previous round of updates, Curry’s revised its full-year expectations again. Hargreaves Lansdown’s Chiekrie said: “Consumer electronics and computing sales have lagged as consumers struggle to justify quite so much discretionary spending during a cost-of-living crisis. And in the Nordic regions, the second largest segment, trading conditions remain extremely tough with sales here set to be down by double digits.

“Although like-for-like sales are set to come in 7% lower than last year, the group’s outlook for profits and debt has improved. That’s been driven by a better-than-expected display in the UK & Ireland division.

“Margin improvements and cost efficiencies here are helping to drive the division’s profits higher, with underlying operating profit expected to come in 40% higher when full-year results are announced next week. Trading in the last two months of its financial year was called out as particularly strong, and analysts are keen to hear if this momentum has continued into the new financial year.”