Monday 8 January
- German factory orders
Tuesday 9 January
- Full-year results from Shoe Zone
- First-half results from Games Workshop
- Trading update from B&M European Value Retail
- BRC UK retail sales index
- German industrial production
- EU unemployment rate
- US NFIB smaller companies survey
Wednesday 10 January
- Trading updates from Sainsbury’s, Persimmon, Greggs, Nichols and Hunting
- US oil inventories
- In Asia, December sales figures from Taiwanese silicon chip foundry TSMC
Thursday 11 January
- Trading updates from Tesco, Whitbread, Darktrace, Taylor Wimpey, Ferrexpo and Hilton Food
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- US monthly Federal budget deficit
- In Japan, quarterly results from Uniqlo-owner Fast Retailing
- In Europe, quarterly results from Suedzucker
- M&S Christmas trading update
- US consumer price index
Marks & Spencer will share its Christmas trading update on Thursday, following a year when shares reached their highest point since the start of 2019.
In review of the third quarter results, analysts will look to total sales figure, which reached £3.6bn in the third quarter of last year. Like-for-like sales growth, which measures the year-on-year growth for the same number of stores, will also be on display. In the first half of the year, sales for food rose 11.7%, clothes and home rose 5.5%, Ocado retail rose near 7%, and international stores rose almost 4%. UK sales in total rose 9.6%.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: M&S does not tend to say much about the Ocado Retail 50-50 joint-venture in its quarterly updates, but any commentary on wider online sales developments will also be welcome. Clothing & Home’s online performance has continued to improve, thanks to growth in both users of the app and also click-and-collect.”
In the first half of this year, M&S made £360m in underlying pre-tax profit, a number expected to climb significantly as the second half has historically averaged £100m more. While chief executive Stuart Machin has been cautious with forecasts, analysts are now expecting near £700m in adjusted pre-tax profit, and £578m in stated profit.
“Detailed comment from chief executive Stuart Machin on profits is not usual at this stage either, although analysts will look for any updates on the guidance given alongside November’s interim results,” Mould, Coatsworth, and Hewson said.
“At that stage, Mr Machin stated that M&S was not expecting too much help from the economy or the weather, with the result that adjusted pre-tax profit would be more weighted toward the first half that ended in September.”
Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth did not expect comments on dividends, after making its first distribution this year since fiscal 2020.
Friday 12 January
- Trading updates from Vistry and John Wood
- UK manufacturing, construction and industrial output
- Chinese inflation
- US factory orders
- In the US, quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase, United Health, Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon and Delta Airlines
- US producer price index
US inflation figures will be released this week, with consumer price index being revealed on 11 January and producer price index on 12 January.
The consumer price index rose by 3.1% from November 2022 to November 2023, which, in combination with the June reading, is the lowest since 2021.
“It tallied with the current preferred narrative of both equity and bond markets, namely that 2024 will see a cooling in inflation and a soft economic landing, with the result that the Federal Reserve will be able to pivot to cutting interest rates,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
The producer price index rose 0.9% year on year, with final demand goods dropping 1.5% and services rising 2.1%.
“With PPI a likely lead indicator for CPI, it seems logical to expect a further cooling in the headline number, although oil prices are on the rise and the base for comparison will start to soften, too,” Mould, Hewson. and Coatsworth said.
“A further retreat in the rate of PPI and CPI could reinforce market expectations that Fed chair Jay Powell and his colleagues may sanction a first one-quarter point rate cut as soon as March and press on with up to five more by Christmas, to take the Fed Funds Rate to 4.00% from its current mark of 5.50%.”
The first two Fed meetings of the year are scheduled for 31 January and 20 March.
