Monday 30 October
- Full-year results from Lok’n’Store
- First-half results from Airtel Africa
- Trading statements or quarterly results from HSBC, Pearson, Glencore and Computacenter
- UK mortgage approvals
- German inflation
- In Asia, quarterly results from Bank of China and BYD
- In the US, quarterly results from McDonald’s, ON Semiconductor, Simon Property, Pinterest, Checkpoint Software, Loews, Lattice Semiconductor, Transocean Drilling and Wolfspeed
Tuesday 31 October
- Trading statements or quarterly results from BP, Coca-Cola HBC, Spectris and Elementis
- BRC UK shop price index
- Chinese purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing and services industries
- EU inflation
- Bank of Japan policy decision
In the first of three central bank policy decisions this week, the Bank of Japan will convene to decide its latest course of action on Tuesday.
Bucking the trend of its counterparts, the BoJ is one of the only developed monetary authorities to have avoided raising interest rates.
“All it has done so far, as bond vigilantes have started to push back at this ultra-loose approach, is raise the hard cap on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (or JGB) yield from 0.25% to 0.50% and then 1.00% as its yield curve control policy starts to creak,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and head of financial analysis Danni Hewson.
“If yields push past 1% the BoJ may intervene with more bond buying, but that would mean more Quantitative Easing and more money printing, which explains why the Yen keeps sinking.
“The BoJ seems slightly stuck, as it does not really want to raise rates until wage growth becomes firmly embedded, even if inflation is finally running above its 2% target, and governor Kazuo Ueda and colleagues are expected to leave the headline Main Policy Rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, a level first adopted in February 2016.”
- US Case-Shiller house price index
- US Conference Board consumer confidence survey
- In Japan, quarterly results from Japan Tobacco, Advantest and Fanuc
- In Asia, quarterly results from Samsung Electronics and Prada
- In Europe, quarterly results from ABInBev, Stellantis, BBVA, BASF, Uniper, Carlsberg and Ferrovial
- In the US, quarterly results from Pfizer, AMD, Amgen, Caterpillar, Eaton, Yum! China, Caesars Entertainment and Cameco
Wednesday 1 November
- Trading statements or quarterly results from GSK, Next, Weir, Smurfit Kappa and Aston Martin Lagonda
- Purchasing managers indices for manufacturing industries from Japan, Asia, the UK and the USA
- US ADP payrolls survey
- US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- US car sales
- US oil inventories
- Federal Reserve Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting
Following on from the BoJ, The US Federal Reserve’s FOMC will then decide its own course of action on Wednesday.
Since March of last year, the Fed has hiked rates from 0.25% to 5.50%, while Quantitative Tightening has been run at $47.5bn (£39.2m) and then $95bn (£78.4bn) a month.
“That run rate has helped the Fed to trim its bloated balance sheet by $1trn – or 12% – from the spring 2022 peak,” Mould and Hewson said.
“That reduction is likely to continue as the Fed declines to reinvest money received from maturing bonds, but the central bank’s absence from US Treasury markets as a buyer could be one reason why US government bond yields are rising.
“Another is tough Fed talk about interest rates staying higher for longer in response to inflation – the US two-year Treasury yield tends to move six to nine months before the Fed does and right now it is rising fast.”
For this meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee, Mould and Hewson said markets have put a 94% probability on no change in the Fed Funds rate at 5.5%, with an expectation that there will be one more hike before they finally pause for good.
The Fed’s first cut is currently anticipated in July 2024.
- In Japan, quarterly results from Toyota Motor and Kyocera
- In Europe, quarterly results from Ørsted, Wolters Kluwer and Tenaris
- In the US, quarterly results from Qualcomm, CVS Health, Estee Lauder, Mondelez, Airbnb, Paypal, AIG, Electronic Arts, Yum! Brands, DoorDash, Clorox, Zillow, Qorvo and Avis Budget
Thursday 2 November
- First-half results from BT, Sainsbury and Trainline
- Trading statements or quarterly results from Smith & Nephew, Entain, Haleon, Howden Joinery, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, OSB, TI Fluid Systems and Derwent London
- Purchasing managers indices for manufacturing industries from the EU
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas US job cuts survey
- US factory orders
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting
A day after the Fed, the Bank of England will complete the trio of central bank monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
Like the US, the BoE has dramatically raised rates since December 2021, hiking the base rate from 0.1% to 5.25%, while it has reduced its bond holdings 15% to £758bn.
AJ Bell’s Mould and Hewson said: “The plan now is to cut the balance sheet by another £100bn to £658bn in the next 12 months.
“No change is expected to Quantitative Tightening at this meeting and Mr Bailey and colleagues are expected hold rates at 5.25% too.
“Rather like the Fed, the BoE is talking ‘higher for longer’ but markets currently expect one more hike at the most before a first cut in late 2024.”
- In Europe, quarterly results from Novo Nordisk, AXA, Fresenius, Fresenius Medical Care, Lufthansa, Zalando, Adecco and Hugo Boss
- In the US, quarterly results from Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Stryker, Zoetis, Shopify, Marriott, Ferrari, Microchip, Moderna, Palantir, Cummins, Barrick Gold, Kellogg, Baxter, Skyworks, Ball, Fox, NewsCorp and Peloton
Friday 3 November
- Purchasing managers indices for services industries from Japan, Asia, the UK and the USA
- US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth
- In Australia, quarterly results from Macquarie
- In Asia, quarterly results from Alibaba
- In Europe, quarterly results from BMW, Intesa SanPaolo, AP Møller-Maersk, Société Générale, Aker and Volvo Car
- In the US, quarterly results from Formula 1 and Liberty Broadband
