Weekly outlook: Mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto results; Barclays and Natwest report

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 15 February

Rio Tinto's record $5.2bn dividend gets muted reception

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Monday 15 February

– Full-year results from BHP Group

Investors are expecting good things from BHP group’s results, according to The Share Centre. Despite the pandemic hitting the global economy, China’s has sustained the demand for commodities helping the prices of key commodities such as iron ore and copper stage a recovery.

As such, analysts expect revenues and earnings to head up for the mining company which has given returns of 26.46% over a one-year period.

– Quarterly results from Liberty Global in the US

Tuesday 16 February

-Full-year results from Glencore

-German ZEW economic sentiment indicator

-New York Fed Empire State economic activity indicator

-Quarterly results from Palantir in the US

Wednesday 17 February

-Rio Tinto’s full-year results

Rio Tinto’s shares are up by nearly 40% over the past year buoyed by higher raw material prices, hopes for an economic recovery and nagging worries that inflation may be lurking around the corner, according to AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

This will be the mining company’s first set of results under its new chief executive officer Jakob Stausholm, who took the helm after controversy over the destruction of two rock shelters in the Juukan Gorge, a sacred Aboriginal site in Australia under Sebastian Jacques.

Analysts will focus on the miner’s EBITDA which is expected to be $23.5bn for 2020, compared to $21.2bn in 2019. Rio’s biggest earner in 2020 is expected to be iron or at nearly $19bn of EBITDA, followed by aluminium, copper, diamonds and then energy and minerals at $1.6bn.

Rio Tinto’s net debt is expected to drop to just $1.7bn, down from nearly $20bn a decade ago, “thanks to higher profits, disposals and also a drop in capital expenditure”, said Mould.

-First-half trading results from British American Tobacco and Hochschild Mining

“British American Tobacco’s defensive qualities and regular dividends usually make it very appealing to investors at times of great economic uncertainty,” said The Share Centre.

Despite cigarette sales falling in many developed countries, the group said in December that it still expected full-year revenues to grow by around 3% thanks to better-than-expected sales in the US and South Africa where a ban on smoking was lifted in August after five months.

Investors should look for comments on the prospects of sales of next generation products, such as vaping, as well as to see if the company confirms the market’s expectations for a 6% rise in dividends.

-Trading statement from Burford Capital

-UK inflation figures

-US retail sales data

-US industrial production and capacity utilisation rate figures

-US NAHB housing market index

-Quarterly results from Baidu in Asia

-In Europe, quarterly results from Kering and Schindler

-Quarterly results from Shopify and Analog Devices in the US

Thursday 18 February

-Barclays full-year results

Barclays will be the first of the Big Five FTSE 100 banks to report its full-year earnings and all eyes will immediately turn to the dividend, said Mould. Regulators forbade Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Standard Chartered from paying dividends in calendar 2020, meaning they cancelled their final or fourth-quarter payments for 2019 and any quarterly or interim payments for 2020 which saved them around £14bn in cash.

Analysts expect Barclays to declare a dividend of 3.5p a share for 2020 (just over £600m) ahead of 5.4p in 2021.

However, this depends on the pre-tax profit figure which will influence dividend payment. Analysts are expecting a full-year figure of £2.8bn, down from £4.4bn in 2019.

Barclays was hit by impairment charges in 2020, booking £608m in the first half of the year. The bank is expected to set aside another £689m in Q4 to take the full-year total to £5.0bn.

-Full-year results from Smith & Nephew and Indivor

Smith & Nephew had a challenging period as the company’s involvement in supplying equipment and tools needed in hospital theatres and other healthcare services has meant it has suffered as elective surgeries have been continuously cancelled or postponed.

At the beginning of the year, Smith & Nephew gave a profit warning, saying that full year underlying revenues would be hit by 12%, along with a margin contraction.

-First-half results from recruitment specialist Hays

-US housing starts and building permits figures

-US oil inventories data

-US weekly jobless claims data

-In Europe, quarterly figures from Nestlé, Airbus, Daimler, Électricité de France, Credit Suisse, Repsol, Carrefour and Moncler

-In the US, quarterly figures from WalMart, Applied Materials, Newmont Mining, Barrick Gold

Friday 19 February

-SEGRO full-year results

While the future of commercial property looks uncertain, SEGRO has benefited from the demand for warehouses and industrial sites that are essential in the consumer-led, e-commerce-driven future.

The property investment and development company revealed in its January trading statement that they received 98% of 2020’s rent on time, and that 88% of Q1 2021’s money had also been paid, with just 8% subject to agree deferrals. SEGRO has continued to acquire assets, funded by June’s £680m placing.

The headline figure to look out for in its full-year results will be net asset value per share which stoff at 716p at the end of the first half. Analysts believe this will grow to 746p, with NAV reacing 832p by the end of 2021 and 891p by the end of 2022, according to Mould.

Analysts will also consider the vacancy rate which stood at 5.2% at the end of the first half, customer retention rates (88% as of June 2020) and the average lease length which was 7.8 years in December 2019. SEGRO’s last stated net debt position was £2.5bn with was relatively lowly loan-to-value ratio of 27%.

SEGRO paid 20.7p a share in 2019, paying an interim dividend to 6.3p a share. Analysts are expecting a 5.3% hike in the full-year figure to 21.8p a share.

-Full-year results from Natwest Group and Moneysupermarket.com

-UK monthly government borrowing figures

-GfK UK consumer confidence reading

-‘Flash’ purchasing managers indices in Asia, Europe, UK and USA

-US existing homes sales figures

-In Europe, quarterly figures from Hermes, Danone, ENI and Renault

-In Europe, quarterly figures from Deere & co

 

 

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