Monday 17 February
- First-half results from Wilmington
- Rightmove UK house price index
- In Australia, full-year results from BHP
- In South Africa, quarterly results from Anglo American Platinum
- In the US, quarterly results from Transocean
Tuesday 18 February
- First-half results from InterContinental Hotels and Springfield Properties
- Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- UK unemployment
- German ZEW economic survey
- US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
- In Asia, quarterly results from Baidu
- In Europe, quarterly results from CapGemini and Kerry Group
- In the US, quarterly results from Medtronic, Cadence Design, Occidental Petroleum and Toll Brothers
A trio of British miners are set to release their final results this week, starting with Antofagasta on Tuesday. It comes after a year in which the FTSE 350 Precious Metals and Mining sector made a hefty gain of 54%, making it the third best performer out of 39 indices.
This rally was propelled by an all-time high for gold and silver moving to its highest price since 2013, according to Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Takeover bids for Shanta Gold and Centamin also helped push the sector higher, he added.
As a result, Antofagasta saw its share price rise 10% over the past year. Mould said: “Antofagasta’s main product by far is copper, where the price is up by 13% in the past year, with gold and molybdenum as by-products.
“Antofagasta’s January trading statement has already confirmed output and net cash costs for 2024 and given guidance for 2025, so there should be few surprises there. Output in 2025 is expected to come in between 660,000 and 700,000 tonnes of copper, compared to 664,000 in 2024, and net cash costs are expected to fall between $1.45 and $1.65 a pound, thanks to higher output and improved volumes of the by-products gold and molybdenum.
“Attention will therefore focus on Antofagasta’s headline earnings figure, where management’s preferred metric is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and the dividend. Analysts are looking for a 10% advance in EBITDA in 2024 and more in 2025 when output rises and costs drop slightly, as well as a cut in the dividend in 2024 ahead of a rebound in 2025 – though much will clearly depend upon the copper price.”
Wednesday 19 February
- Full-year results from HSBC
- Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- UK inflation
- US new housing permits
- US new housing starts
- In Europe, quarterly results from Philips, Tenaris, Hochtief and Carrefour
- In the US, quarterly results from Analog Devices, Pioneer Natural Resources, Carvana, CF Industries, AngloGold Ashanti, Alamos Gold and Bausch & Lomb
Mining announcements are set to continue on Wednesday with the final results of Glencore and Rio Tinto, though they have had a less rosy year. The Industrial Metals and Mining sector made was up a modest 2% over the past year, ranking it 28th out of the 39 indices.
Glencore and Rio Tinto themselves are both down 7% over the period, which Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, attributed to concerns around China’s demand for raw materials, cost price inflation and, ultimately, mixed commodity prices.
“Rio Tinto’s biggest earner is iron ore where the price is down by nearly a fifth in the past 12 months, a trend that swamps gains in its other key metals of aluminium and copper,” he said.
“Glencore is a big player in copper, but also nickel, which is unchanged, zinc, which is up a bit and lead, which is down a bit over the past year. It is also a major producer of coking coal, where prices are currently weak amid fears of soft Chinese demand and higher Indonesian output, and the effect of tariffs between Washington and Beijing are yet to become clear.”
Much attention will focus on Glencore’s earnings and dividends, with its lack of share buybacks in 2024 (which had previously been high) leaving some market commentators expecting more spending elsewhere – perhaps even on M&A activity, according to Hewson.
“Capital expenditure has been creeping up, but net debt is very low at $3.7bn and that could give Glencore room for some expansive strategic action – note the Financial Times has again floated the story about the company’s longstanding ambition to acquire Rio Tinto,” he said.
“Rio Tinto’s management will doubtless be keen to keep any such advances at more than an arm’s length, even if nothing seems imminent right now, and shareholders seem happier for miners to keep a tight rein on spending and mergers and acquisitions, even after the substantial reductions in debt and improvements in balance sheets of the past decade or so.
“That said, Rio has set about acquiring Arcadium Lithium for $6.7bn and forming a standalone lithium division, so shareholders will look for an update here, and also seek an affirmation of the 2025 production guidance for bauxite, aluminium, copper and iron ore given by chief executive Jakob Stausholm back in January. Iron ore output is very dependent upon the Australian Pilbara mine, where Rio Tinto is awaiting planning approval for certain projects, not to mention the weather.”
Thursday 20 February
- Full-year results from Centrica, Mondi and Indivior
- Trading statement from Safestore
- Chinese one- and five-year interest rates
- US oil inventories
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In Asia, quarterly results from Lenovo and Singapore Airlines
- In Australia, quarterly results from Telstra
- In Europe, quarterly results from Schneider, Airbus, Zurich, Mercedes Benz, Renault, Repsol, Accor, Aegon, BE Semiconductor and Krones
- In the US, quarterly results from Wal-Mart, Mercado Libre, Nu, Newmont, Cameco, Rivian, Baxter, Life Nation, Birkenstock, Dropbox, Hasbro and Shake Shack
Friday 21 February
- Full-year results from Standard Chartered
- GfK UK consumer confidence
- UK retail sales
- UK government borrowing figures
- Belgian Courbe Synthetique business confidence survey
- Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the Japan, Europe, the UK and USA
- US existing homes sales
- In Europe, quarterly results from Air Liquide, EDF, Sika and Kingspan
- In the US, quarterly results from Constellation Energy