Monday 12 June
- US monthly Federal tax receipts and spending (and deficit)
- In Asia, quarterly results from L’Occitane
- In the US, quarterly results from Oracle
Tuesday 13 June
- Full-year results from Oxford Instruments
- Full-year results from Ashtead
- Trading statement from Bellway
- German ZEW economic sentiment survey
- US NFIB smaller companies’ sentiment survey
- US inflation figures
Isabel Albarran, investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, expects a “significant deceleration” in US inflation this week, with consensus at 4.1% compared to 4.9% last month.
“The key issue for the Federal Reserve (Fed) is still the uncomfortably tight labour market, particularly in light of last week’s confusing data. The economy has proven resilient, but we could see an economic slowdown in the coming months with the risk of credit tightening still on the horizon,” she said.
- In Europe, quarterly results from Colruyt
Wednesday 14 June
- Full-year results from Severfield and OnTheMarket
- First-half results from Safestore
- UK monthly GDP figures
- UK manufacturing, construction and industrial output
- US Federal Reserve policy decision
Fed policymakers are widely expected to pause after the series of punishing rate hikes, according to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. However, she warned not to expect a descent just yet: “Bets are being raised that the Fed is going to have to keep interest rates elevated for longer to tackle still sticky inflation, especially after the stronger than expected jobs report last month.
“Decision makers will be guided on the data and if it shows that prices are staying stubborn and the labour market is still tight, there still could be another rate hike this summer before any cuts are considered.”
However, Streeter added that the prospects of a US recession appear to be increasing with the latest snapshot of the mighty services industry, the ISM PMI reading, showing that growth slowed by more than expected in May.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould and Danni Hewson said markets are putting a 77% chance on the Fed funds rate sticking at 5.25% this month, but they then see a 65% chance of a hike in July, and a similar chance of one in September to a peak of 5.75%. Only then, said Mould and Hewson, will rates begin to be cut, either in November or December.
- US producer price (factory gate) inflation
- US oil inventories
- In the US, quarterly results from housebuilder Lennar
Thursday 15 June
- Full-year results from Halfords, GB Group, Fuller Smith & Turner and Marks Electrical
- Trading statement from Bunzl
- Chinese fixed asset investment, retail sales and industrial production data
- US retail sales
- US industrial production and capacity utilisation rates
- US weekly unemployment claims
- In Europe, quarterly results from Vantage Towers
- European Central Bank policy decision
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has lifted the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.75% from a low of zero, and engaged in quantitative tightening.
At a rate of €15bn a month, QT has taken the ECB’s asset holdings down by €1trn, or 12%, according to Mould and Hewon.
The pair from AJ Bell said EU inflation is down to 6.1% from a peak of 10.6%, but this is still three times the ECB’s target and Lagarde has told markets to expect more rate rises.
- In the US, quarterly results from Adobe, Kroger and Jabil
Friday 16 June
- Full-year results from Peel Hunt
- Trading statement from Tesco
Tesco’s trading statement ought to give a good indication of how consumers are dealing with mounting cost-of-living pressures, said Matt Britzman, an equity analyst from Hargreaves Lansdown.
Britzman said industry data points to a sliver of hope that UK grocery inflation may be showing signs of easing, but it remains near record highs at 17.2% for the four weeks to 14 May.
He added: “The owners of big brands have put through huge price hikes this year, so it’ll be interesting to hear how that’s impacting shopping patterns – a shift toward own-brand products is already underway.
“Tesco’s focus on prices, with key promotions like Low Everyday Prices and Aldi Price Match, have helped it retain market share over the past few years. That comes at a cost, and the accelerated cost-saving programme is expected to move at some pace to help offset higher marketing spend and cost inflation. An update on the latter is hoped for next week.”
