Monday 11 October
–XP Power Q3 trading update
-Analysts’ meeting at Bunzl
-Annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund kick off virtually and in Washington DC. Running until 17 October, topics under discussion will include the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development and aid effectiveness.
Tuesday 12 October
–LVMH trading update
LVMH, which is a favourite of star manager Terry Smith, benefited from a boost in pent-up consumer demand post-lockdown, says Hargreaves Lansdown senior investment and markets analyst Susannah Streeter, thanks to its strong online presence and the draw of its historic brands like Christian Dior and Marc Jacobs.
LVMH’s strategy of partnering with social media influencers seems to be working, Streeter says, and investors will be keen to see how Louis Vuitton’s collaboration with Korean boyband BTS has driven engagement with its young and growing fan base.
“Although the easing of international travel restrictions has been slow, we should expect some forward guidance regarding an expected pick up in the capital city boutiques and airport shopping malls towards the end of the year,” Streeter says.
Earlier this year LVMH added jeweller Tiffany’s to its portfolio of luxury brands for £11.6bn, “so any update on expected profits in jewellery and watches will be worth keeping an eye on,’’ she adds.
-Trading update from Entain
-British Retail Consortium retail sales data
-UK unemployment and wage growth
-German ZEW industrial sentiment survey
-US NFIB smaller companies sentiment survey
-US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Wednesday 13 October
–Barratt Developments trading update
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and financial analyst Danni Hewson note the timing of the update should be interesting as it coincides with the end of the stamp duty land tax holiday. At the end of June, the purchase price that was exempt fell to £250,000 from £500,000 and from 1 October the threshold has returned to £125,000, as it was before the pandemic.
Analysts are currently pencilling in 6% sales growth to £5.1bn, a 17% rise in pre-tax profits to £951m, assuming no further remediation costs related to the cladding issues in its Citiscape residential tower block, and a dividend of 41p, up from 29.4p.
-Trading updates from PageGroup and Marston’s
-Analysts’ meeting at JD Sports
-UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output figures
-US consumer price inflation data
“The last reading of the consumer price index (CPI), for August, was 5.2% higher than the year before, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose by 4.3%, the fastest rate of increase in 30 years,” Mould and Hewson note.
“Both marks were well ahead of the Fed’s 2% target and enough to prod chair Jay Powell acknowledging that inflation could run a little hotter for a little longer than anticipated – leaving us in the field of semantics when it comes to what they mean by ‘transitory’,” they add.
–Blackrock Q3 results
Profits at the world’s largest fund group were better than expected in the second quarter as its assets under management spiked to $9.5btrn from $7.3trn the year before.
-In the US, results from Grubhub, JP Morgan Chase, Infosys and Delta Air Lines
-In Europe, a trading statement from JustEat Takeaway.com
Thursday 14 October
–Asos full year results
The online clothing retailer has come under pressure in the last 12 months, with its shares down 40% over the period. “That may seem odd when everything we read talks about how online retailers are cleaning up at the expense of brick-and-mortar rivals,” says Mould and Hewson, “yet neither the first-half nor third-quarter results in April or July beat expectations – a potential problem for a stock that was trading on a forward price/earnings (PE) multiple of more than 35 times at its year highs.”
Sales in the third quarter were up 21% year-on-year but chief executive Nick Beighton admitted there had been a slowdown in the final weeks in June, which he blamed on bad weather. On top of this, Asos copped to pressure on its gross margin from currency movements, freight shortages and product mix.
Beyond the headline sales and pre-tax profits figures, Mould and Hewson say analysts will be looking for changes in active customer numbers, which stood at 26.1 million at the end of June, how its retail gross margin has held up and increases to the balance sheet. At the end of H1, the firm had just £92m in net cash, down from £265m at year-end, after acquiring the Topshop, Topman and Miss Selfridge brands from Arcadia.
-Trading statements from Ashmore, Rathbone Brothers, Rio Tinto, Dunelm, National Express, Rank Group and Hays
-Analysts’ meeting at Legal & General
-US producer price inflation
“The inflationary cycle is often seen as starting with commodity prices, which feed through to producer prices, which feed through to consumer prices as manufacturers try to protect margins and then finally to wage growth,” say Mould and Hewson.
“The new US PPI figures could therefore offer some insight into what is coming down the pipe and the last reading of a 14.2% year-on-year increase was the fifth straight double-digit rise and the highest since records began in the mid-1980s.”
-China inflation data
“As a huge exporter, of its own goods and those manufactured on an outsourced basis, China is seen as having a huge influence over global pricing trends,” Mould and Hewson note. “In August factory gate, or producer price, inflation surged again to 9.5% year-on-year, while consumer price inflation cooled a little to just 0.8% year-on-year.”
-US weekly oil inventory data
-US weekly unemployment claims
-In the US, quarterly results from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Alcoa
Friday 15 October
-Results from Hargreaves Lansdown, Jupiter Fund Management and Mediclinic
-US retail sales data
-In the US, quarterly results from Honeywell, Goldman Sachs and General Electric
