Weekly Outlook: First-quarter results for Tesla and Lloyds

Key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 22 April

Lloyds

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Monday 22 April

  • Rightmove UK house price index
  • China one- and five-year interest rate
  • In Europe, quarterly results from SAP, Sandvik and Saipem
  • In the US, quarterly results from Verizon Communications, Nucor, Packaging Corp, Albertsons, Cleveland Cliffs and Whirlpool

Tuesday 23 April

  • Trading updates from Taylor Wimpey, GB Group and RWS
  • UK government borrowing
  • Flash purchasing manufacturing indices (PMIs) for Japan, Asia, the EU, UK and USA
  • US new homes sales
  • In Asia, quarterly results from China Mobile
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Novartis, Kering, Deutsche Boerse, ASM International, Renault, Akzo Nobel, Randstad and Temenos
  • In the US, quarterly results from Visa, PepsiCo, Danaher, GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris, UPS, Lockheed Martin, Freeport-McMoRan, Spotify, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Seagate and Mattel
  • Tesla first quarter results

Tesla will release its first quarter results for a year that has so far included the layoff of 10% of the company’s employees and struggling delivery numbers.

For the first quarter, Tesla’s deliveries dropped to 387,000 year-on-year, a 9% decrease. In Q1 of 2023, year-on-year growth hit 36.4%. Production also dipped into the red with a 1.7% year-on-year fall, compared to 44.3% growth in Q1 2023.

Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “Elon Musk put the weak shipment numbers down to production setbacks, so curing those by reducing staff seems a bit unusual to say the least, even if the company’s major shareholder looked to put a positive gloss on the redundancies by saying this meant Tesla was preparing for its next phase of growth.”

Sales for Tesla are also projected to fall 5% over the year, and earnings per share are expected to tumble 40%. While net income sat at $2.5bn this time last year, now expectations are near $1.6bn.

“Tesla shares are down by more than a third this year (and by a sixth over the past twelve months),” the AJ Bell team said.

“This means it ranks 497th in the S&P 500 this year, easily the worst performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven, and it also leaves the shares at their lowest level since early 2023. No doubt Mr Musk will look to offer comfort with these first-quarter results, although his promise of fresh details on Tesla’s Robotaxi on 8 August are yet to help the stock to any notable degree.”

Wednesday 24 April

  • Full-year results from Sanderson Design
  • First-half results from Tracsis and AB Dynamics
  • Trading updates from Croda, Bunzl, abdrn, Nichols, PZ Cussons and Breedon
  • German Ifo economic survey
  • Belgian Courbe Synthetique economic survey
  • US durable goods orders
  • US oil inventories
  • In Japan, quarterly results from Canon and Fanuc
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Ping An Insurance, China Telecom and UMC
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Roche, Air Liquide, Atlas Copco, Iberdrola, Heineken, ENI, Orange, Kone, Moncler, Norsk Hydro, Carrefour, Volvo Car, SSAB and Kindred
  • In the US, quarterly results from Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, IBM, LAM Research, AT&T, Boeing, Ford, United Rentals, Otis, Rockwell, Biogen, Teradyne, Interpublic and Hasbro
  • Lloyds first-quarter results

Lloyds will report its first-quarter results on Wednesday with banks including HSBC, Barclays, NatWest, and Standard Chartered to follow within the week.

The first-quarter updates come as the FTSE All-Share Bank index sits up 13% from this time last year. However, the AJ Bell team notes this still means a benchmark lower than the post-financial crisis world of 2009.

“Last year was in many ways a good one – no major scandals to force compensation payments, fatter net interest margins after a series of interest rate rises from central banks and no recession so no major increase in bad loans, all coupled with good cost control,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.

“The question now is whether 2024 and 2025 will be better, the same or worse. As we head into the first-quarter results, analysts seem cautious, because aggregate pre-tax profits across the Big Five are seen as coming in flat-to-down in 2024 and 2025.”

Across the various reports, eyes will be on loan and deposit growth, net interest margin, loan losses and asset impairments, conduct costs, and cash returns to investors. All five banks are running share buyback schemes and HSBC also pays out quarterly dividends. Llyods returned £2bn to investors via buybacks last year, with a number in the same ballpark expected this year.

At Lloyds, pre-tax profit is expected to drop a quarter in 2024 compared to 2023, from £7.5bn to £5.8bn. Pre-tax profit for the first quarter is estimated at £1.6bn while 2023’s Q1 brought in £2.3bn.

Thursday 25 April

  • Full-year results from Sainsbury’s
  • First-half results from WH Smith
  • Trading statements and quarterly results from AstraZeneca, Barclays, Unilever, WPP, Persimmon, London Stock Exchange, Schroders, Travis Perkins, Inchcape, Ibstock and Drax
  • US Q1 GDP growth
  • US weekly initial unemployment claims
  • In Japan, quarterly results from Renasas and Fujitsu
  • In Asia, quarterly results from SK Hynix
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Nestlé, Hermès, Schneider, Sanofi, Equinor, BNP Paribas, BASF, Holcim, Société Générale, Pernod Ricard, STMicroelectronics, Deutsche Bank, Repsol, BESI, Delivery Hero, Aixtron, Kone Cranes and HelloFresh
  • In the US, quarterly results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Merck, T-Mobile USA, Caterpillar, Comcast, Intel, Honeywell, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, KLA-Tencor, Gilead Sciences, Altria, Northop Grumman, Hess, Newmont, Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, Snap, Southwest Airlines, Juniper Networks and Harley Davidson

Friday 26 April

  • Full-year results from Warpaint London and Petrofac
  • Trading statements and quarterly results from NatWest and Smurfit Kappa
  • GfK UK consumer confidence
  • Interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan
  • US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index
  • In Asia, quarterly results from CNOOC
  • In Japan, quarterly results from Hitachi, Advantest, Komatsu and NEC
  • In Europe, quarterly results from TotalEnergies, Safran, SGS, Jeronimo Martins, SCA, Saab, SKF, Yara, Electrolux and AMS-Osram
  • In the US, quarterly results from ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Phillips66 and Ball