Weekly Outlook: Fed, BoJ and Bank of England central bank decisions

Key events for wealth managers in the week beginning 17 March

US Federal Reserve crest
3 minutes

Monday 17 March

  • Full-year results from Phoenix Group, Marshalls and Vanquis Banking
  • Rightmove UK house price survey
  • Chinese retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production growth
  • US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
  • In the US, quarterly results from Textron

Tuesday 18 March

  • Full-year results from Travis Perkins, Computacenter, Sabre Insurance, Mortgage Advice Bureau, Harworth, Midwich and Yu
  • First-half results from Close Brothers
  • Trading update from SThree
  • German ZEW economic survey
  • US new building permits
  • US new housing starts
  • US industrial production and capacity utilisation rates
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Xiaomi, Tencent Music and China Unicom
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Brembo
  • In Canada, quarterly results from Alimentation Couche-Tard
  • H&T full year results

Wednesday 19 March

  • Full-year results from Balfour Beatty, Hill & Smith, Hochschild Mining, Ferrexpo and Forterra
  • EU inflation
  • US oil inventories
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Tencent
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Vonovia, Jeronimo Martins and Swatch
  • In the US, quarterly results from General Mills
  • Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan will announce their latest decisions on monetary policy on Wednesday. While most major central banks have been cutting interest rates after a period of high inflation, the Bank of Japan has bucked the trend by hiking rates to 0.5% — a 17 year high after the central bank ended the era of negative interest rates last year.

Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, anticipate the BoJ to leave rates at 0.5% this week, while the Fed is also likely to pause at 4.5%.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England will follow with their own policy decisions on Thursday, with the former expected to cut by 25 bps to 0.25%. The BoE, meanwhile, is expected to leave the base rate untouched at 4.5%.

“Economists and investors will also be on the look-out for any comment with regard to the four bank’s respective Quantitative Tightening (QT) programmes,” the AJ Bell trio said.

“All four are shrinking their balance sheets as a further means of tightening monetary policy in the fight against inflation, after the first rapid expansion in the wake of the financial crisis and then the second phase of bond buying after Covid. The BoJ also bought ETF and shares in Real Estate Investment Trusts, while the SNB has been an active buyer of global equities as part of its efforts to try and hold the Swiss franc in check.

“The SNB’s asset purchases have shot higher in the past few months, to leave its balance sheet positions at an all-time high of CHF 331bn. For the moment, the aggregate asset holdings of the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, SNB and the European Central Bank were $19.3trn as of December, down 12% year-on-year and a quarter less than the $26.5 trillion peak reached in early 2022.”

Thursday 20 March

  • Full-year results from Central Asia Metals, Energean, James Fisher and Gulf Keystone Petroluem
  • Trading statement from Bloomsbury Publishing
  • Chinese one- and five-year interest rates
  • UK unemployment
  • US existing homes sales
  • US weekly initial unemployment claims
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Ping An Insurance, Geely Auto and China Mobile
  • In Europe, quarterly results from Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, Verbund and RTL
  • In the US, quarterly results from Accenture, Nike, Micron, FedEx and Darden Restaurants
  • Swiss National Bank and Bank of England monetary policy decisions

Friday 21 March

  • First-half results from JD Wetherspoon
  • GfK UK consumer confidence survey
  • UK government borrowing
  • In Asia, quarterly results from Meituan
  • In the US, quarterly results from Carnival and Nio