Monday 13 December
-Trading update from SThree
-Japanese Tankan business confidence survey
-Bank of England Financial Stability Report
-German factory orders
Tuesday 14 December
-Full-year results from Chemring
-First-half results from Watches of Switzerland, Purplebricks and Begbies Traynor
-Trading statements from Ocado and Joules
Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Matt Britzman notes Ocado’s Q3 results were dented by a fire at one of its fulfilment centres, with the online retailer taking an estimated £10m hit.
Revenue was down 1.8% over the period, mainly because it was benchmarked against the company’s bumper performance in 2020 and Britzman said Q4 will likely be more of the same. It is also bracing for £5m in additional costs from higher wages to attract new staff.
“The larger growth story comes from the Solutions business – charging third parties to use the group’s robotic systems. But Ocado needs to sign new partners to make the business profitable,” Britzman said. “Whatever the results, with a price-sales ratio some way above its long-term average, pressure’s on to deliver good news.”
-UK jobs and wage growth data
The unemployment rate stood at 4.3% or 1.44 million for the three months to September, while the proportion of people employed was near historic highs at 75.1%, said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and financial analyst Danni Hewson. Wage growth, meanwhile, was at 5.8%, including bonuses, and 4.4% without.
While these figures look bullish, Mould and Hewson note that the claimant count of 2.1 million is still much higher than it was pre-pandemic in January 2020 (1.25 million), suggesting that “many, families are still finding it very hard to make ends meet, something which may influence policy makers”.
-EU industrial production
-US NFIB smaller business confidence index
-US producer price index (‘factory gate inflation’)
Wednesday 15 December
-Full-year results from Avon Protection, Hollywood Bowl and Character Group
-First-half results from Currys and Hipgnosis Songs
-UK inflation
The headline consumer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year in October, its fastest increase since December 2011. Though this was still behind wage growth, Mould and Hewson said workers will be getting nervous that gap will narrow and real wages will be squeezed.
-Chinese retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth data
-US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Mould and Hewson said the Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%, where they have stood since March 2020, with markets currently pricing in May 2022 for the first hike, albeit by a narrow margin of 53%. In November, the Fed took down its bond buying programme to $15bn a month and chair Jerome Powell has hinted the central bank might speed up its tapering in December.
-US retail sales
-US NAHB house builders’ sentiment index
-US oil inventories
-In Europe, a trading update from retailer H&M
-In the US, quarterly results from housebuilder Lennar
Thursday 16 December
-Full-year results from Go-Ahead Group
-First-half results from ITM Power
-Bank of England interest rate decision
“After a decade of cuts, record lows and in some cases even negative interest rates, only the Bank of England is thought to be considering an interest rate increase at this meeting,” Mould and Hewson note.
“However, markets are now so used to mixed messages from this fine institution after Mark Carney’s era as governor, and the bodged communication from his successor Andrew Bailey and new chief economist Huw Pill in November, that investors will only really believe something when they see it,” they said.
Bailey floated the possibility of a rate rise in November only for the monetary policy committee to move to tighten policy, with 6-3 voting to leave QE unchanged and 7-2 to leave rates on hold.
“Pill has since hinted that strong jobs data and lofty inflation may indeed merit a rate rise but the Omicron variant may yet give the Bank of England an excuse not to pull the trigger,” Mould and Hewson added.
-Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
Rates currently stand at -0.75%, while the central bank’s balance sheet is at CHF 314bn.
-European Central Bank interest rate decision
Europe’s headline interest rate has been stuck at 0% since March 2016. In September the European Central Bank began slowly unwinding its €1.9trn pandemic-era stimulus package, a move president Christine Lagarde painted as a recalibration, not a tapering. However she has all but ruled out a rate hike until 2023.
-Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from Asia, Europe, the UK and US
-US weekly jobless claims
-US industrial production and capacity utilisation rate
-US building permits and housing starts
-In Asia, monthly sales data from silicon chip foundry UMC
-In the US, quarterly results from FedEx, Adobe, Accenture and Jabil
Friday 17 December
-UK consumer confidence
Mould and Hewson said it will be interesting to see if inflation or the Omicron variant have impacted consumer confidence heading into the peak of the festive season. In November, the overall confidence score rose three points to -14 and the major purchase index was also up three points at -7.
-Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The Bank of Japan has also seen little change in the way of monetary policy, with rates at -0.1% since February 2016. It has been toying with quantitative easing since 2001 and during the pandemic has been purchasing ¥180bn worth of bonds a month.
-German Ifo business confidence survey
-EU inflation figures
-In the US, quarterly results from Darden Restaurants
