Weekly Outlook: BP and Intel Q3 results

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25 October 2024

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Monday 7 October

In Europe, quarterly results from Philips
In the US, quarterly results from Waste Management, Ford, ON Semiconductor, F5, Amkor and Rambus

Tuesday 8 October

Full-year results from YouGov
First-half results from C&C
Quarterly results or trading statements from HSBC, Pearson and Elementis
British Retail Consortium UK shop price index
UK mortgage approvals
S&P Case-Shiller US house price index
US Conference Board American consumer confidence survey
Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
In Europe, quarterly results from Novartis, Banco Santander, Saint-Gobain, Adidas, Ferrovial, ASM International, UPM-Kymmene, Moncler, Davide Campari Milano and Lufthansa
In the US, quarterly results from Alphabet, Visa, AMD, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Stryker, Mondelez, Paypal, Chipotle, Royal Caribbean, Electronic Arts, Snap, Qorvo and Caesar’s Entertainment
BP results

BP and Shell will post their third-quarter results on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, as a slump in oil prices continues.

In the past year, shares in BP have dropped by over 25% and shares in Shell have dropped by about 10%.

Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, and Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, noted that this is out of the norm with what has happened historically in times of conflict. Following the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979, oil prices spiked.

“But then the International Energy Agency has just argued there is plentiful supply (helped by Libya’s return to production), Israel has stated it would not attack Iranian oil facilities and OPEC has trimmed its demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, so perhaps markets could be forgiven for a little complacency,” Mould and Hewson said.

“Either way, central bankers will be pleased, as lower energy and fuel prices are helping cool inflation and create space for interest rate cuts, and consumers will be happy, too.”

In its October trading update, BP announced lower oil and gas production, weaker refining margins, and higher net debt from the second to third quarter. Shell flagged that refining margins and profits from the chemicals and refined products business would be down.

Wednesday 9 October

First-half results from Aston Martin Lagonda
Quarterly results or trading statements from Standard Chartered, Next, Glencore and Computacentre
UK Budget
German, French, Italian and Spanish Q3 GDP growth
US ADP employment survey
US pending homes sales
US oil inventories
In Europe, quarterly results from Schneider, Airbus, UBS, AXA, Volkswagen, BASF, Wolters Kluwer, CapGemini, SKF and Tod’s
In the US, quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Eli Lilly, Abbvie, Caterpillar, Amgen, Starbucks, KLA, Airbnb, Doordash, Coinbase Global, Kraft Heinz, Hess, GE Healthcare, eBay, Rockwell, Robinhood Markets, Zimmer Biomet and Wolfspeed

Thursday 10 October

First-half results from Spectris
Trading statements from Haleon, Smith & Nephew and Coca-Cola HBC
Flash purchasing manufacturers indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services industries for Japan, Asia, Europe and USA
Chinese purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services industries
Bank of Japan interest rate decision
EU inflation
US Personal Consumption Expenditure index
US weekly unemployment claims
In Japan, quarterly results from Japan Tobacco, Fujitsu and Panasonic
In Asia, quarterly results from Samsung Electronics, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, BYD, Foxconn and Cosco Shipping
In Europe, quarterly results from TotalEnergies, Anheuser-Busch InBev, BNP Paribas, Intesa SanPaolo, BBVA, ING, Universal Music, Stellantis, STMicroelectronics, AP Møller-Maersk, Société Générale, Carlsberg and Repsol
In the US, quarterly results from Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, Linde, Uber, Comcast, ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, Estée Lauder, Roblox, Kellanova, Ball, Norwegian Cruise Line, US Steel and Spirit Aerosystems
Intel third-quarter results

Intel will publish its third-quarter results on Thursday with shares at their lowest level since 2013.

Although the company is in the midst of a five-year ‘turnaround plan’, it released a profit warning for its Q3 results, suspended its dividend, and disappointed in second-quarter results.

“Perhaps the best news going into these Q3 results is that expectations for both this quarter and the next one are already low, so it may not take much to surprise on the upside,” the AJ Bell duo said.

“Equally, the company’s long-term competitive position remains parlous, and Mr Gelsinger could be forgiven for wishing that Intel still had the $63 billion it has spent on buybacks in the past decade on its balance sheet – the firm has spent too much on financial engineering and not enough on product engineering (prior to Mr Gelsinger’s return to helm it).”

Guidance for the third quarter includes revenues between $12.5bn and $13.5bn, a gross margin of 34.5%, and an earnings per share loss of $0.24 on a stated basis.

“Analysts and shareholders will also look for an update on the cost reduction programmes launched in the wake of the weak second quarter results and the warning for the third,” Mould and Hewson said.

“Capital expenditure budgets have been cut by a fifth to between $25bn and $27bn, alongside the headcount reductions.”