Monday 27 January
– German IFO Business Climate Index
Canaccord Genuity head of managed portfolio service Jordan Sriharan said the German economy has struggled for momentum ever since the US/China trade tensions put downward pressure on global export markets.
However, this forward-looking business sentiment indicator has been on an upward trend ever since August – in many ways, reflective of the upturn in the fortunes of the manufacturing sector.
“We expect this confidence to gently improve as a function of business sentiment, given the recent thawing of trade tensions,” he added.
– Nationwide UK house price index
Tuesday 28 January
– Apple Q1 results
AJ Bell investment director Mould said a year ago Apple was looking to fight its way back from a profit warning and overcome a slowdown in Chinese handset sales, longer customer upgrade cycles and concerns over regulatory pushback regarding customer data.
“The company appears to have bounced back in style, as 2019 saw no further earnings upsets and the shares have risen by over 100% in the past 12 months. Put another way, Apple has added $692bn in market capitalisation – more than the entire valuation of Facebook.”
– Crest Nicholson H1 results
– AG Barr and PZ Cussons trading statements
Wednesday 29 January
– Federal Reserve meeting
The CME Fedwatch survey is putting an 84% chance on no change in interest rates at this meeting but a 54% chance of at least one cut, and just a 6% chance of at least one increase, by the end of the year.
Mould said Fed chairman Jay Powell (pictured) continues to swear blind that this is “not QE4”, but the Fed’s balance sheet is swelling again, the bank’s intervention looks set to run for longer than expected and financial markets seem to be “feasting on this cheap cash, as share prices have really motored”.
Thursday 30 January
– Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting
Sriharan said the new-found certainty in the UK’s political situation following December’s election has forced a change in view on the economy.
“Despite, economic data showing a sharp bounce post-election – the ‘Boris bounce’ – two members of the MPS and the governor recently spoke about potential rate cuts. Market expectations of a rate cut are now over 80% so this week’s meeting will be eagerly anticipated with investors not quite sure on what outcome to expect.”
– US Q4 GDP
Sriharan said economists expect US growth in the last quarter of 2019 to remain at 2.1%, however the survey spread is quite wide at 2.9% for the highest estimate and 1.5% for the lowest.
“Hiring momentum has slowed and trade tensions have started to bite as US businesses pared back investment. However, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates throughout 2019 so the cheaper cost of capital will support both businesses and consumers, which in turn can support the broader economy. If the data release is materially lower than the anticipated 2.1%, the market may be spooked into thinking this is the start of a growth scare.”
– St James’s Place trading statement
– Unilever, Diageo and BT trading statements
– Royal Dutch Shell full-year results
Friday 31 January
– Hargreaves Lansdown trading statement
– Chinese PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing
– GfK UK consumer confidence survey
