Tuesday 14 April
– JP Morgan first-quarter results
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said JP Morgan’s results kick off a run of US bank results this week. Wells Fargo also reports on 14 April, while Bank of America, Citigroup and US Bancorp update the market on 15 April. That is before Bank of New York Mellon’s results on 16 April and Citizens Bank’s on 17 April.
Mould said: “Unlike their European and UK counterparts, US banking stocks has been performing strongly before the Covid-19 outbreak but the Americans have joined their oversees peers in falling hard as investors have fretted about the economic as well as human cost of the crisis.”
– Johnson & Johnson quarterly results
– US NFIB Small Business Optimism (March)
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management investment manager and international equity analyst Dan Smith said the health of small businesses is a useful barometer for gauging the likely extent and duration of any slowdown, as well as the levels of bankruptcies likely further down the road.
He added: “The US government has introduced several measures to support small businesses, including the Paycheck Protection Program loan, but it’s unlikely that these will prevent confidence from plummeting this week, especially given the high levels of uncertainty around when normality will return to everyday life.”
Wednesday 15 April
– Interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada
– Quarterly results from Blackrock
– Federal Reserve Beige Book
– US oil inventories data
– US retail sales figures
Thursday 16 April
– Australian unemployment data
– US housing permits and new housing starts data
– US weekly unemployment insurance claims
This figure set an all-time high record of 6.6 million last week, after 3.3 million the week before. “Let’s see how the latest weekly claims number looks, but it could be grim, given that the US systems is likely to be overwhelmed by new claimants and it could just take time for them to get through and register,” said Mould.
– Rio Tinto Q1 2020 sales and revenue release
Share Centre analysts said iron ore and copper prices have fallen off as investors and traders expect demand for these raw materials to fall off upon the looming global recession.
“For this first quarter update the group is expected to report some weakness in Chinese demand, though probably more important will be any clues about what demand is likely to be in the next few months and whether operations will need to be shut down or curtailed further to save on costs.”
– Rentokil Q1 2020 sales and revenue release
In its late March comment Rentokil suspended the final dividend and announced cost cutting measures, the Share Centre noted. “Pressure on its services is likely to have continued with one possible bright spot being in hygiene and demand for disinfecting services,” it added. “Some analysts believe longer-term the group could be a beneficiary from the crisis as the world’s focus on health and hygiene increases.”
Friday 17 April
– Chinese economic data
Mould said equity markets are rallying although it’s not clear whether we will see a V, W, U, L or bathtub-shaped recovery as and when we start to get through the worst of the viral outbreak.
“This is one reason why the next batch of Chinese economic data will be particularly closely watched – although whether the numbers are entirely reliable is something will remain a point for discussion.
“The first number to watch will be GDP growth for Q1 2020. The world’s second-largest economy is clearly going to miss its target of growth in the region of 6%. Economists will be looking to the degree of the drop to see if this offers any guide to what may happen in the West in Q2 and then beyond.”
Smith said China is several months ahead of most of the world in its fight against coronavirus with Wuhan and several other cities put under quarantine in late January.
“This week’s GDP numbers will provide the first glimpse of the impact on growth of the unprecedented act of putting an economy on lockdown – and a useful predictor as to the western world’s growth trajectory over the coming months,” he said.
– European inflation data
