Monday 6 May
- Purchasing managers’ indices for service industries from Europe
- In Europe, quarterly results from Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
- In the US, quarterly results from Berkshire Hathaway, Microchip, Palantir, Simon Property, BioNTech, Tyson Foods, Loews, Coty, JLL, Coherent and Goodyear
Tuesday 7 May
- Trading statement from IWG
- British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor
- Halifax UK house price index
- UK purchasing managers’ index for the construction industry
- Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- German factory orders
- EU retail sales
- In Japan, quarterly results from Nintendo
- In Asia, quarterly results from Budweiser APAC Brewing
- In Saudi Arabia, quarterly results from Aramco
- In Europe, quarterly results from UBS, UniCredit, Siemens Healthineers, Infineon, Coloplast, Uniper, Sandoz, Leonardo, Fresenius Medical Care, Zalando, Adecco and FinecoBank
- In the US, quarterly results from Walt Disney, Ferrari, Electronic Arts, Rockwell, GlobalFoundries, Rivian Automotive, Reddit, Lyft, ZoomInfo Technologies, Cirrus Logic and Nikola
- BP first-quarter results
BP will release its first-quarter results on 7 May after a year that has seen little change in share price, despite oil price volatility and chief executive Bernard Looney stepping down from his position in September after a review from the board of relationships within the workplace.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “Shareholders continue to wrestle with BP’s strategy for how it best positions itself for the global move away from hydrocarbons and towards renewables.
“He may now be gone, thanks to allegations of personal misconduct, but Bernard Looney laid down BP’s transition plan in 2020 and it was much more aggressive than that of BP’s peers and rivals (notably the American majors).
“Even though BP has since refined its plan and slowed down its move away from oil and gas, with the result that output is expected to drop by 25% between 2020 and 2023, rather than by 40%, this is still more radical than anything planned across the other super majors. BP’s shares have lagged those of its peers since Mr Looney first outlined the plan in February 2020.”
Since 20 February 2020, BP has returned about 40% while competitor ExxonMobil has returned over 140% and Chevron and Shell are both near 80%.
Gas and low carbon energy were large sources of income for BP a year ago, brining in $7.4bn in Q1 2023, but for Q1 2024 a drop to $1.6bn has been pencilled in.
“Natural gas may have a bigger impact on BP’s profits than many expect. Its Gas and Low Carbon Energy unit was the biggest earner a year ago, but earnings have since slumped as the natural gas price has retreated,” the AJ Bell team said.
“Analysts expect a sharp year-on-year fall in the first quarter, compared to broadly flat profits from Oil Production and Operations. A year-on-year drop is also expected at the downstream Customers & Products business, which includes refining and petrol stations.”
In Tuesday’s results, Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth believe investors will be looking to headline figures including underlying replacement cost profit, net debt, capital investment and cash returns.
Wednesday 8 May
- First-half results from Virgin Money
- Trading updates and quarterly results from Renishaw, OSB and JD Wetherspoon
- German industrial production
- US oil inventories
- In Japan, quarterly results from Toyota Motor and Rohm
- In Europe, quarterly results from AB-InBev, BMW, Munich Re, AholdDelhaize, Amadeus IT, Fresenius, Continental, Siemens Energy, Puma, Alstom and United Internet
- In the US, quarterly results from Uber, Airbnb, ARM, Shopify, Emerson, Formula One, Robinhood Markets, Fox, News Corp, Instacart, Liberty Broadband and New York Times
Thursday 9 May
- Full-year results from 3i, Airtel Africa,
- Trading updates and quarterly results from Flutter Entertainment, IMI, ITV, Derwent London, Harbour Energy, Balfour Beatty, John Wood and Synthomer
- Japanese wage growth
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In Japan, quarterly results from Softbank, Japan Tobacco, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Nippon Steel, Nissan Motor and Nikon
- In Asia, quarterly results from SMIC, LG Corp and Samsonite
- In Europe, quarterly results from Enel, Ferrovial and Pirelli
- In the US, quarterly results from Wheaton Precious Metals, Roblox, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music and Tapestry
The Bank of England is set to release its monetary policy decision on Thursday, which has been closely monitored this year in anticipation of interest rate cuts.
The Bank has kept a goal of 2% annual inflation, which has started to cool in recent months. In March, headline consumer price inflation hit 3.2%. However, service and core inflation have proved stubborn, with core CPI reading 4.2% in March.
“The Bank of England may also consider the slow pace of UK GDP growth – where the economy is expected to crawl out of a shallow recession in Q1 2024 – the cost of government borrowing (where the annual interest bill is now well over £100 billion) and the level of sterling (as a sliding pound could import inflation, while a soaring one may choke off exports), not to mention the stability of the wider financial system and financial markets, given that we are just fourteen months on from a major banking failure in Switzerland and a handful of them in the USA,” the AJ Bell team said.
While markets expect rates to stay at 5.25% at this meeting, where they have remained since last August, some guidance for the future could be seen in how votes are spread across the decision. While there were two votes for a rate increase in February, by March, those votes had gone to no change. In both months, there was just one vote for a rate cut.
“Markets have recalibrated their expectations and now expect just two cuts this year, down to 5.00% in August and then 4.75% in December,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
“The UK two-year gilt yield, which has an uncanny record of moving six to nine months before the Bank of England does, stands at 4.51%, to imply just three cuts in the next two years.”
Friday 10 May
- UK Q1 GDP growth
- UK industrial, construction and manufacturing output
- US monthly Federal budget deficit
- In Japan, quarterly results from Tokyo Electron, NTT, Honda Motor, Olympus and Sumitomo Electric
- In Asia, monthly sales from TSMC
- In Europe, quarterly results from Mediobanca
- In the US, quarterly results from CRH and AngloGold Ashanti
