Monday 14 September
– Full-year results from MJ Gleeson and Abcam
– First-half results from Keystone Law
– Halifax UK house price index
– In the US, quarterly results from Lennar
Tuesday 15 September
– Trading statement from Ocado
The Share Centre said this third quarter update will only cover trading up to 1 September, the day the all-important Marks & Spencer grocery delivery service began.
“However, there’s little doubt that the market will be most interested in any comments about the level of demand seen from customers in the first few days given the extensive advertising campaign ahead of the launch and the significance of the new service to both companies.
“Investors will also be looking to see if revenue growth on the retail side has continued to be strong even as more people head back to the high street.”
– Chinese tangible fixed investment, retail sales and industrial production growth figures
– UK unemployment and wage growth data
– German Zew business sentiment indicator
– Belgian Courbe Synthetique business sentiment indicator
– New York Fed Empire manufacturing sentiment survey
– In the US, quarterly results from Federal Express, Adobe and Manchester United
Wednesday 16 September
– US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said the Federal Open Markets Committee is not expected to act this time around but chairman Jay Powell, the governors and the five voting local Federal Reserve presidents are all still on a state of high alert, just in case the recovery from the first-half’s recession proves weaker than expected.
“Mr Powell is now saying that the Fed will adjust its inflation target and look for a 2% average over time – meaning that it will be happy to see an overshoot after periods when it has missed that target as it has pretty consistently since December 2018.
“That means the Fed is prepared to run negative real interest rates for some time – whereby its headline interest rate runs below inflation. For investors, that means their money loses purchasing power in real term and this may be one reason why some investors are piling into stock markets or gold to protect their wealth.”
– Full-year results from Galliford Try and Redrow
– First-half results from Central Asia Metals
– UK inflation data
– US retail sales figures
– US oil inventory data
Thursday 17 September
– First-half results from Next
Mould noted an update in July showed that trading had not been as bad as feared so analysts will look to how the outlook measures up to the scenarios outlined by chief executive Simon Wolfson.
After a first-half sales drop of 33% year-on-year for full-price product – Next provided three possible scenarios for the second half, of sales down 5%, 19% and 33%, which would leave the full-year down 18%, 26% or 33%.
“Under the mid-point scenario, Next now expects pre-tax profits of £195m for the full-year, with a best outcome of £330m and a worst-case of £15m. That compares to £729m a year ago,” said Mould.
– Full-year results from Clinigen and Kier
– First-half results from Hilton Food
– Interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan
– EU inflation figures
– Philadelphia Fed business sentiment survey
– US weekly unemployment claims data
– US housing permits and new housing starts data
– US NAHB house building industry sentiment indicator
Friday 18 September
– Bank of England monetary policy decision
Mould said like Jay Powell and the FOMC, Andrew Bailey (pictured) and the MPC are not expected to act this time around but the BoE continues to debate the merits of negative interest rates.
“Record-low interest rates and bond yields are already pressuring net interest margins and therefore profits at the big lenders and a drop to zero or even negative headline rates, let alone negative real rates, would be another shoe to drop on the Big Five FTSE 100 banks’ shares, at least if the experiences of Japan and Europe are any reliable guide.”
– UK retail sales figures
– In Europe, quarterly results from Juventus Football Club
