Weekly outlook: Autumn Statement and NVIDIA reports

Monday 20 November

• Full-year results from Diploma and Compass
• First-half results from Big Yellow Group
• People’s Bank of China one- and five-year interest rate decision
• In Asia, quarterly results from Xiaomi
• In the US, quarterly results from Agilent and Zoom Video Communications

Tuesday 21 November

• Full-year results from Avon Protection
• First-half results from Telecom Plus, Cranswick and Workspace
• Trading statement from Petershill
• Q3 results from NVIDIA

Chip designer NVIDIA will publish its Q3 results on Tuesday, in a year where it has led the way for returns in the S&P 500.

On the importance of the results, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and head of financial analysis Danni Hewson said: “NVIDIA has been such an important factor in broader US equity market performance in 2023. Its shares are up by nearly 200% in the year to date, and it is one of the so-called Magnificent Seven – alongside Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Tesla – that have generated the vast majority of the gains in the headline US index in 2023.

“Second, silicon chip stocks are a good guide to the global economy by dint of their ubiquity. This is a $600bn-a-year industry, sales wise, and semiconductors can be found in everything from smartphones to servers, robots to smart meters and cars to laptops. That said, consultants Gartner and WSTS both expect global chip sales to drop by 10% to 12% in 2023, thanks to a weak recovery in China, a slowdown in the West after the lockdown-inspired, gadget-spending splurge of 2020-22, and some inventory digestion as supply chains start to unclog. A rebound in global chip sales of some 10-12% is currently expected for 2024.”

“Finally, the 30-stock Philadelphia Semiconductor, or SOX, index, is a pretty fair guide to investor risk appetite. Chip stocks feed off positive earnings forecast momentum, loving upgrades and recoiling from downgrades. If the SOX is doing well, then the chances are the wider indices are too, although the opposite also holds true – a droopy SOX can be harbinger of trouble ahead, looking at the index’s history since inception in 1994. The SOX sagged over the summer and has yet to recapture its 2021 all-time high.”

• Analysts’ meeting at International Consolidated Airlines
• US existing homes sales
• In Asia, quarterly results from Baidu
• In the US, quarterly results from Medtronic, BestBuy, Analog Devices, CRH, AutoDesk, HP, Urban Outfitters, Kohl’s, Lowe’s and Abercrombie & Fitch

Wednesday 22 November

• Full-year results from Sage, Britvic and Grainger
• First-half results from Johnson Matthey, AO World and Speedy Hire
• Trading statements from TT Electronics, Bodycote, Rotork and Breedon
• Analysts’ meeting at Hochschild Mining
• UK autumn statement

Wednesday will see chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver his second autumn statement. Anticipated on the agenda are reforms to ISAs, pensions, and taxes.

Laith Khalaf, AJ Bell head of investment analysis, said: “The big question remains what the government decides to do with any windfall it gets from the economy dodging recession this year, in particular whether any tax cuts are on the cards.

“The chancellor may well opt to keep some powder dry for a pre-election splurge in the budget next March. That might make political sense, but it would be a gamble. Macroeconomic currents are capricious, and by the time the budget rolls around, the chancellor’s scope for largesse might be scratched out by a few pen strokes from the bean counters at the OBR.”

Previewing the statement, Mark Dowding, RBC BlueBay CIO, added: “It seems increasingly likely that steps to cut taxes will be taken in an autumn budget. Should these occur, it will be interesting to see how the gilt market reacts and having witnessed a bond market tantrum last year, RBC BlueBay would not rule out a similar occurrence at some point in the future, if markets react with scepticism with respect to the government’s fiscal plans.

• UK government borrowing figures
• US consumer durables orders
• US oil inventories
• US weekly initial unemployment claims
• In Europe, quarterly results from ThyssenKrupp
• In the US, quarterly results from Deere

Thursday 23 November

• Full-year results from Virgin Money UK and AB Dynamics
• First-half results from Jet2, Motorpoint, Firstgroup and Volex
• Trading statements from Intertek, PZ Cussons and Coats
• Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing industries from Japan, Asia, Europe and the UK
• In Asia, quarterly results from Meituan

Friday 24 November

• First-half results from Hornby
• Japanese inflation
• Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing industries from the US