Does the Fed behave differently in an election year?
Canada Life Investments economist David Arnaud has examined the historical data to shed light on whether suspicions the Federal Reserve takes the election cycle into account are founded.
Federal Reserve
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PA ANALYSIS: Yellen reminds markets the Fed is in charge
Janet Yellen’s Economic Club of New York speech provided a timely reminder that nobody can move markets like central bankers.
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US Fed: Fewer rate hikes and “bond buying”?
“If you buy investment grade debt, it looks like the Fed will be in your corner,” said David Buckle, head of quantitative research at Fidelity.
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Schroders expects June rate hike
The US Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates one or two times this year, according to Garth Taljard, the firm’s head of multi-asset products for Asia.
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PA ANALYSIS: High time for high-yield, the US equity substitute?
Those who believe that ‘risk-on, risk-off’ is consigned to the past look away now, with record inflows into US high-yield indicating that sentiment has shifted once again to the spicier end of the fixed income spectrum.
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PA ANALYSIS: The US economy is making wealth managers earn their money
The United States accounts for around half of the global equities index so whether you like the asset class or not you can never ignore it, or eliminate it from a portfolio.
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Yellen comments help send European shares lower
European stocks fell on Thursday morning following Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday in which she said US financial conditions have “recently become less supportive of growth”.
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PSigma – Fear $10 dollar oil after Fed ‘bullying’
$10 dollar oil is a possibility following 18 months of “outright victimisation” of the commodity and a bullying Fed, according to PSigma’s IM’s investment strategy head, Rory McPherson.
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PA ANALYSIS: Did Uncle Sam shoot himself in the foot?
The ‘first rate rise since the financial crisis’ was a long time coming and markets initially responded relatively well, but it is starting to look like a miss-step by the Federal Reserve.
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Fed indicates next rise won’t come before summer
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates on Wednesday night accompanied by dovish rhetoric suggested the first rise of 2016 will not come until the summer.
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A year to remember: Crashes, QE and the return of rising rates
Investors will remember 2015 as a year spent trying to guess what major central banks around the world would do or say next.
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PA ANALYSIS: An EM rebound, calmer commodities, and other reasons to be optimistic
I’ve lost count of the number investors who described themselves as “cautiously optimistic” in 2015, but going into 2016 maybe we should drop the caution entirely (or at least tone it down a bit).
