Five talking points on ECB policy
The ECB has kept interest rates on hold, but revised its economic forecasts. So, what have investors learned about Mario Draghi’s intentions?
The ECB has kept interest rates on hold, but revised its economic forecasts. So, what have investors learned about Mario Draghi’s intentions?
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The European Central Bank (ECB) has held interest rates in line with market expectations.
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Sterling has bucked up against the euro, hours after polling began in the UK general election and ahead of the imminent European Central Bank meeting.
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Financial markets were buoyed by Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election, as the euro soared against the greenback.
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Adversity is best tackled face on, and so the big call this year has been to overweight Europe, despite the uncertain geopolitical picture.
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ECB president Mario Draghi confirmed European interest rates would remain unchanged on Thursday, in what senior investment managers described as a “confusing” performance.
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Eurozone inflation rose at its fastest pace since January 2013, but the divergence between the headline and core inflation figures means the European Central Bank will be reticent to loosen monetary policy.
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Suspicions have been raised about European bond scarcity, but rising yields and declining prices point to further volatility, said Julius Baer head of fixed income, Markus Allenspach.
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Although a shadow of political risk hovers over Europe, those keen to invest in the region can take advantage of some resilient high yield bonds and relatively cheap stocks, according to Brooks Macdonald head of research Richard Larner.
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Eurozone inflation followed analysts’ predictions and continued its steady rise to hit 0.6% in November.
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A few years ago, it was de rigueur to talk up a supposed decoupling of developed and emerging markets, but for central banks there is now a more disconcerting separation at play.
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M&G Investments’ Richard Woolnough has said he sees a move away from the UK as a capital markets centre in favour of the US developing, and is tweaking his fund’s holdings accordingly.
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