But, given the whirlwind nature of the first two months of the year, I was feeling a bit more nervous than usual. I was expecting to have missed quite a bit. But, as is the way with such things, I was somewhat disappointed.
When you are in the thick of it every twist and turn of the market is filled with longer-term import. But coming back cold after a few weeks and those same twists and turns feel a lot more like minor chicanes in a much straighter road than one remembered.
Yes there have been a few M&A deals in the wealth management space, gold has continued its recovery and Old Mutual is splitting itself up. But overall, most of the major talking points remain the same.
With good reason, central bank policy continues to dominate most conversations and those that are not about the efficacy (or lack thereof) of QE are concerned with one or other geopolitical risk – with the Brexit debate front and centre.
As the Bank of England pointed out on Tuesday, the ongoing debate will continue to ratchet up the uncertainty within markets as we head toward 23 June.
Where does this leave markets?
In a note out on Tuesday, Societe Generale pointed out that while the first quarter of 2015 looked rather different to the first quarter of this year, the second quarter is likely to start with the same kind of uncertainties as last year’s did.
“First, the oil rebound remains fragile, as it has been driven by changeable risk appetite and temporary supply disruptions,” the bank said, adding that fundamentals remain weak.
The bank’s oil analyst expects an average price for WTI crude to be $36/barrel, pointing out that “A potential agreement to freeze production (with an OPEC/non-OPEC meeting due on 17 April) is still uncertain and even if an accord is reached, it is likely to have limited impact on supply because Iran will almost certainly be excluded.”
