Ben Gutteridge, Brewin Dolphin’s head of fund research, agrees that, given Johnson’s popularity, his stance is a blow to Cameron and the ‘Stay in’ campaign.
However, he added: if he genuinely has premiership ambitions, his credibility will surely be damaged if does not make a more meaningful contribution on such an important issue, than the “shadow figure” one Johnson said he would take in the campaign.
That said, Gutteridge was quick to point to a lack of either empirical or fundamental evidence to suggest that Brexit concerns will have more than a minimal impact on UK asset prices. This is a view similar to the one espoused by Neil Woodford who said last week that economic arguments for and against Brexit are bogus.
While that may be the case, there is a distinct probability that the debate is not going to centre on the economics. While, as Cameron pointed out, there are more people working in financial services outside the city of London than there are within it, the large majority of the population will be more concerned with issues of immigration than they will with whether or not banks are getting a fair deal on regulation.
As Mahoney pointed out: “With the referendum set to take place in June, when the migrant crisis will be back into full flow, anxiety and fear will certainly push some voters towards a more isolationist stance.
Indeed, it is highly possible that the economic arguments, rather than eventually holding sway in a rational debate, will instead fall by the wayside, run off the road by populist scaremongering.
And, with a credible face leading both sides of the campaign, the vote will be much closer than everybody thinks. And, with that will come significantly more uncertainty, something markets dislike a great deal.
