Fathom said UK has run persistently high current account deficits over the past fifteen years, and accumulated a near 20% of GDP net external debt position as a result. This could be helped by a weaker pound.
There is however a much less rosy scenario whereby the pound suddenly falls significantly and sets off a chain of events which pulls the rug from under the British economy.
The Fathom researchers said that if a vote to leave the EU is handled badly, spooking markets and prompting a crash in sterling, there could be capital flight from the UK and a dangerous mix of a recession accompanied by inflation and a house price correction.
The answer to the blessing or curse question seems to be tied to how a vote to leave is handled and how large or sudden the fall in the pound is.
A relatively steady and small fall in the pound will allow British exporters to benefit without any major fallout across the wider economy, but a sudden large slide would have the potential to cause the wheels to come off the British economy in the short term.
