PA ANALYSIS: Weak US job numbers may prompt another Yellen U-turn

The US economy seems to be treading water at best now, with the latest non-farm payroll data released by the Labor Department decidedly unimpressive.

PA ANALYSIS: Weak US job numbers may prompt another Yellen U-turn

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Take away all credibility from these public appearances and a central banker is fighting with at least one arm firmly tied behind his or her back.

The obvious way out of this predicament is to go ahead and implement a modest raise in November or December. This is seemingly dependent however on the US economy picking up between now and then.

Not only will it require stronger jobs numbers and solid GDP growth, in the wake of the September FOMC meeting it looks like it will require there to be no further serious disruptions in capital markets around the world, particularly in China.

Should job numbers stay soft or other indicators like manufacturing output undershoot expectations then the Fed will have boxed itself into a corner, and it is hard to see how it will get out.

This is not necessarily the fault of Yellen her Fed colleagues, it may simply be they have been given one or two more plates to keep spinning than is actually possible for anyone.     

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