PA ANALYSIS: Is a UK rate hike coming quicker than you think?

The prevailing consensus has settled around the expectation that the first UK interest rate hike is a considerable way off, but there are reasons to think this could quickly change once again.

PA ANALYSIS: Is a UK rate hike coming quicker than you think?

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Growth quickened in all three main sectors, the CBI said. The retail sector and professional services are performing particular strongly but manufacturing is modestly on the up too.

The CBI’s Growth Indicator is derived from surveys of 811 businesses across a range of sectors.

 “As we move through the second quarter, growth has cranked up several gears and businesses expect that faster pace to continue,” said Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics. This supports our belief that the weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the early months of 2015 will be short-lived.”

“A stellar increase in activity in the business and professional service sector and retail sales bounding ahead are clear indications of strong business and consumer confidence and increased spending power,” Newton-Smith added.

While the Bank of England seems highly reluctant to take any risk of acting too soon and stalling the recovery, the committee will also be aware that waiting too long could mean the economy overheats and they are then forced to take dramatic action to bring it under control.

It is a delicate balancing act of course, and the past couple of weeks may have changed the equation once again.