Equities prices, and the currencies which they are traded in, are being thrown about by each public comment made by May and her EU negotiating counterparts.
Many investors seem to be trying to make decisions based on political soundbites, with each hint of continued European single market access for Britain cheered, and each suggestion of ‘clean’ or ‘hard’ Brexit provoking worry.
Then there is the regular stream of other macro headlines, such as the wild-card of the UK doing a fast-track trade deal with President elect Donald Trump’s incoming US administration, or big shifts in economic forecasts as seen today with the IMF’s upgrades to the UK’s prospects.
There is also a raft of national elections across Europe coming up this year, set to run parallel to the Brexit talks, with very little certainty about the outcomes.
The Netherlands will vote first on 15 March, followed by France in late April and early May, before the biggest EU nation Germany delivers its verdict on Angela Merkel and her party sometime in September or October.
Further uncertainty on the EU side of the negotiations comes in the form of questions over the path Mario Draghi and his ECB colleagues will take in turning off the quantitative easing taps.
What this period of remarkable upheaval will create is a situation where investors who try to be reactive during this time will in all likelihood end up losing a lot of money as they try to chase UK and European shares up and down.
Something which must be fully appreciated is that everything the politicians on either side of the Brexit talks says is aimed at advancing their negotiating position as they see it, not targeted at being transparent with investors or the public in general.
