PA ANALYSIS: Investors hoping for August respite will be disappointed

The summer slowdown is a myth. Anyone hoping that July and August would provide some respite from the volatility and uncertainty that has characterized financial markets in the past few months has been and is likely to remain disappointed.

PA ANALYSIS: Investors hoping for August respite will be disappointed

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Indeed, for many, the end of July cannot come soon enough. Not only have Chinese stocks had their worst monthly drop in six years, gold is limping toward five and a half year lows and oil is down more than 15% this month.

But, it is not only the price falls that have left investors feeling slightly punchdrunk.

The month started with a whirlwind of speculation about whether or not Greece would remain in the eurozone as banks were closed and politicians repeatedly foundered.

And, while there were indications that at least some kind of resolution might come out of the talks and referendum, in the end the much battered can was kicked once more down the road – leaving investors none the wiser  

In many ways the same can be said for the situation in China. While it was clear that the equity market had got ahead of itself in the past few months, the collapse in prices has brought no real resolution, especially because the government has intervened as heavily as it has.

In fact, the lengths to which the government has gone have done little but raise further questions about the health of the broader economy – questions that were already being raised by declines in commodity prices.

On top of all of this, there has been a litany of earnings statements from companies that, while positive in many cases, have left investors with no great new insights into the health of the global economy.

So, where does that leave investors placed going into August?

For David Jane, co-manager of Miton’s multi-asset fund range the place to look is where the data and the narrative within markets are in conflict.

“Recently, the narrative has largely focussed on the Chinese stock market and the Euro’s slow motion train wreck; where it hasn’t really focussed is on the broader short term and long term implications of events,” he said.

For Jane, recent data is highly supportive of the firm’s focus on developed market consumer and domestic equities rather than capital goods, commodities and emerging markets, at least in the short term.

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