But while such clichés may help fortify them through the darkest parts of the night so they are alert enough in the bright, early hours of dawn to find their fortune in worms, there is also the danger they may well just be wrong.
Which is why Aberdeen Asset Management CEO, Martin Gilbert’s comments to the analysts assembled at the firm’s half year results are worth taking note of. There is no doubt the group is on the wrong side of the consensus trade at present – it is hard to argue with £11.3bn in net outflows, mainly from the firm’s emerging markets funds – but, that Gilbert felt it necessary to reiterate to analysts that the worst possible move the company could make now is change direction, is evident that pressure is indeed growing.
Admitting that the second half is likely to be just as tricky as the first because consensus is only likely to change once interest rates in the US start to rise, Gilbert said: “As a business that has built itself on the back of Emerging markets and Asia, it is very important that we don’t have style drift at this point. It is very important that the bets we have made we adhere to because if we change anything and that goes wrong we are finished as a business,” he said.
Indeed, he added, “what we really need is for the US market to start going down and for emerging markets to go up”, an event he only sees happening when the US starts raising rates.
It is in that statement that one’s view on emerging markets rests; for many, a rise in US interest rates is likely to hit emerging markets hard as there remains a large amount of hard-currency debt.
But, increasingly, some investors are taking a more constructive view on emerging markets and their ability to withstand a rise in US rates.
Pat Ryan, manager of the Lazard Global Equity Income Fund is in the latter camp, explaining that he is of the view that a recovery in the US and a rise in rates will be beneficial for all markets.
“Yes,” he said: “emerging market growth has slowed, three years ago emerging markets were growing $% faster than developed markets, now they are growing only 2% faster.”
But, he added: “The key issue is the Fed. Everyone is worried about the Fed, we have been worried since Bernanke said the word taper in May 2013, that is two years ago next month, I just can’t wait until they raise those rates and get this behind us.
“People are looking back to the ‘90s, the Fed hiked rates in the early 90s and bad things happened, in the late ‘90s the Fed hiked rates and we had the Asian crisis but the economies are very different from what they were then. The Chinese economy may be 10 times larger than it was then they are much more diversified. The foreign currency reserves are much bigger, the pegs to the dollar are gone and the companies are better managed and borrowing less in foreign currency.
In conclusion he explained, that, in fact, emerging markets tend to do pretty well when the Fed raises rates, because it means the US is recovering and, when the biggest economy in the world is recovering you typically want to own cyclicals – and the cyclicals are in emerging markets.
Mark Coombs, Ashmore Group CEO is also banking on a strong return to form for emerging markets, as his group has also had to weather the blows of emerging market focused outflows.
But, he said at the latest set of results: “Those investors willing to look beyond short-term price volatility and to focus on fundamentals are benefiting from the recent recovery in markets. However, some investors remain cautious given continued uncertainties such as the timing and impact of higher US interest rates.
Adding: “In our experience, while flows tend to lag investment performance, the absolute and relative value opportunities across the range of emerging markets asset classes will increasingly be recognised by investors.”
Both Coombs and Gilbert are relying on growth in investor interest and, of course on the improved ability of these markets to weather interest rate storms. Whether or not this view prevails will only be known in time, once the Fed starts raising rates, but for now, both Coombs and Gilbert can take cover in the fact that in many cases, times really are darkest before the dawn.
