Market performance will be driven by artificial intelligence during the second half of the year, according to the Natixis Investment Managers Strategists Survey 2026.
The asset manager found evidence investment strategists see AI as a stronger factor than the continued trouble in the Middle East and related energy price volatility.
Despite some external observers believing the stock market is overheated due to the AI boom, Natixis strategists appear confident there is substance behind the hype.
Of those questioned, 91% of believe AI will be the ‘key factor’ in the second half, with 88% saying they believe productivity gains from AI will translate into higher corporate profits.
Other notable findings include 88% saying they expect the AI sector will accelerate, and only 12% believe the ‘bubble will burst’ in the second half of the year.
Two in three (67%) expect US equities to outperform in the second half, with 42% identifying US markets as likely to deliver the best returns globally.
In terms of concern over private credit markets, over half (55%) said this has been ‘overstated.’
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The firm took in the views of 33 market strategists, portfolio managers, research analysts and economists across its affiliated group of firms to compile the report.
Other factors investigated included the persistence of inflation. Nearly all those questioned (97%) ranked inflation among the top risks to markets in the second half of this year, up from 79% on the same question last year.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said: “The first half of 2026 has presented a challenging environment for investors as they navigate the simultaneous pressures of geopolitical disruption, persistent inflation, and an energy shock.
“While recession fears have eased, inflation remains a persistent risk alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“Yet, despite these headwinds, our strategists see clear opportunities and remain optimistic heading into the second half of the year; specifically pointing to AI, US equities, and an expected outperformance of large caps over small caps.”
