disbelief over british double dip figures

The UK’s GDP shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics, sending the economy back into a recession.

disbelief over british double dip figures
2 minutes

But commentators were reacting with disbelief following strong purchase managers’ indices (PMI) readings earlier in the month.

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, said: "The divergence between the stronger survey data and dire official output estimates is virtually unprecedented and must raise significant question marks over the quality of the data.

"The Bank of England has consistently argued that it sees the survey data as a better guide than early GDP estimates and, given this evidence, it is difficult to disagree. Certainly the impression we have from talking to businesses is the UK economy is not in recession. I would be very surprised if these figures were not revised upwards substantially, although history tells us this process might take a while."

Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbone Unit Trust Management also said he would be taking the ONS statistics with a pinch of salt.

"We are not dismissing the figures but will await the revision. On that basis, there is every possibility that underlying data are stronger than suggested.

"At this stage there are numbers we would place more emphasis on such as strong corporate profits, which seem to be telling a different story; hence the disconnect between the UK market and the GDP figures," Chillingworth added.

To illustrate this, the FTSE 100 was still in positive territory coming up to midday, up 13 points so far since the morning.

Schroders’ European economist, Azad Zangana, pointed out that it was a "technical recession" based on the ONS’ "preliminary estimate", but questioned whether any revisions to the numbers would be enough to make the double-dip go away.

"The double dip comes as no surprise to us. We have been forecasting another recession since last November when the eurozone crisis intensified. Indeed we are forecasting a further fall in GDP for the second quarter which will be caused by the extra special bank holiday to celebrate the Diamond Jubilee."

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