Perhaps it’s a worsening case of post-Christmas blues; the S&P500 rose in 60% of all Januarys from 1967-2006 versus only 40% since. But while over-cautious investors can always find threats ahead, 2017’s calendar brings what could prove a relentless diary of crisis.
Risk events pack the first quarter alone, with Donald Trump’s inauguration on Friday followed by the UK Supreme Court’s decision on Article 50 next week. The US Federal Reserve makes its first 2017 rate decision on 1 February. Germany’s presidential election two weeks later starts a wave of Eurozone ballots.
The Netherlands votes on 15 March, with the anti-Euro Geert Wilders – now convicted of inciting race discrimination, not racism – set to win. The next day Washington will hit its current debt ceiling of $20.1 trillion, risking either a technical default (threatening the US’s triple-A rating like 2011) or a government shutdown (see 2013). Downing Street’s self-imposed deadline for starting the 2-year clock to Brexit then hits two weeks later. You might want to get your summer-holiday cash early again.
NATO meantime risks a fresh stand-off with Moscow, deploying a ‘high readiness’ task force along Russia’s Baltic border, while Turkey risks sliding into dictatorship, squeezed between the catastrophe in Syria and an increasingly divided European Union. The Greek debt crisis will return in July, when Athens’ repayments peak with €7bn due to creditors, if not in May, when it will run out of money entirely on one estimate without a fresh bail-out or debt relief. Germany then votes on Merkel’s refugee policy in September’s federal elections.
