china decoupled but with vested

The Chinese are concerned about problems in the eurozone because if the region experiences a severe recession local authorities in China will have to take aggressive steps to inflate their own economy, a senior S&P economist has said.

china decoupled but with vested
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He said there was a minimum speed at which the domestic Chinese economy has to grow in the eyes of authorities and if it goes below 7% "the whole social model would be brought into question".

In 2009 after the global financial crisis the Chinese government injected its economy with fiscal stimulus to the tune of 18% of the country’s GDP.

"When they do something they do not mess around. There was a view among economists that emerging markets were so dependent on developed markets that they would have to go down with us because they relied on exports to the US," the S&P economist said.

Real private consumption in Asia-Pacific ex-Japan has increased by 17% since 2008, however, which shows domestic consumption is up.

To a large extent, the decoupling long held out for by emerging market enthusiasts has occurred, as they have succeeded in establishing old growth paths with much less help from developed markets.

Another indication of this is that the Chinese current account surplus has gone down from 10% to 2% since the start of the crisis.

This does not mean emerging markets exist in a bubble and are protected from the economic troubles of developed markets altogether, but they are not as reliant as some commentators suggest.

The soft landing is currently being orchestrated by the Chinese authorities and the fact it cut its reserve requirements ratio on Monday means government concerns about inflation have abated.

"What we are saying is we expect a soft landing meaning that these economies will not crash (GDP growth rate will slow to 8% for China) and then bottom out in the later part of this year and see a gradual recovery towards the end of the year and in 2013," S&P said.

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