Bulls picking up their horns slightly – BAML

Market positioning is no longer ‘unambiguously’ bearish says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Bulls picking up their horns slightly - BAML

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According to the firm, its weekly Bull & Bear index is currently at 4.1, the most bullish sentiment reading since June last year.

This shift in sentiment saw $8bn flow into bonds during the week, while equities gathered $4.3bn and precious metals $300m.

Within fixed income, the biggest winners were emerging market debt, which recorded inflows of $2bn, the largest inflows since June 2014. TIPS too did well, gathering $1.1bn in inflows, the largest move since April last year. Investment grade and high yield bonds also saw strong inflows, $4bn and $1.2bn respectively.

On the equity side, US equities were the winner with $5.4bn in inflows. The other major winner were REITS which saw $1.7bn in inflows, the most since May 2013. Europe, Japan and emerging market equities all reported outflows.

Part of the reason for this, the bank said is that the Fed-induced pullback in the dollar “continues to cause unwind of 2015 inflows into “strong-dollar” markets”. But it added, “Japan equity redemptions have lagged European equity redemptions.

Howeverm while sentiment has improved, the bank said it remains a seller of risk, as Fed policy makers remain fickle, and  US GDP/EPS estimates and small business confidence all continue to trend lower

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