His view of the world is the traditional power-brokers are not necessarily the best placed to carry on leading global economic discussions.
He also looks at those with greatest market influence and comes to the conclusion that, for example, Zurich and Singapore are more important financial centres than those of Toronto, Milan and Rome that are part of two G7 member countries.
The continued rise of these growth economies – they should no longer be called ‘emerging’, he suggests – will see China overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2027.
O’Neill also revisited the whole question of the viability of the G7, G8 and IMF that he had originally argued were no longer suitable entities to deal with the challenges of the new world.
His conclusion now is: “Today it is even more obvious”, adding: “Unless the BRICs are embraced more fully by the powers that now dominate the world’s economic policy councils, we cannot enjoy the full benefits of their growth.”
O’Neill is acutely aware that there is more than national or political pride here, and that those countries that make up the G7 (the UK, US, Canada and Japan along with three eurozone members, Germany, France and Italy) “cannot afford to be squeamish or judgemental about countries which now rival them economically, just because of their different social and political systems.”
A G7 being formed today, he argues, would have to include China and he suggests a new G8 – with the G standing for ‘Growth’ – that includes the BRIC countries, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.
He argues the case for the IMF to re-evaluate membership of these groups, with eligibility criteria and clear objectives for their entry or ejection so they are truly representative of the global economy.
“It would be a tough diplomatic challenge for the IMF or anyone to manage the national egos and force implementation of such an approach but, if successful, it would make the G groups consistently relevant and manageable.”
Jim O’Neill’s views can be read in The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond published on 1 December and currently serialised in the Daily Telegraph.
